Paul Douglas On Weather
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Fall Color Update

Fall colors in Maplewood State Park on September 26, 2023. Credit: D.J. Kayser.

Just got back from a trip in northwestern Minnesota trying to relax some and look at the fall colors. We didn't get the heavy rain that other parts of the state (and other parts of northwestern Minnesota) received, with more misty conditions vs. showery weather, during our trip. Either way - it was great to see the fall colors, and some rain as well!

A lot of the state is within the 25-75% color categories according to the latest update from the Minnesota DNR Fall Color Finder. This included Itasca State Park, where it was reported on Wednesday that "Colors are moving towards the peak as paper birch, aspen, and oaks begin to add color."


Skies Slowly Start To Clear Thursday

Thursday will be a day with slowly decreasing clouds in the Twin Cities - so cloudier conditions in the morning, with some sunnier peeks working in later in the day. Morning temperatures start off around 60F with highs in the low 70s - another day where it'll be nice to have the window open (at least most of the day).

Another mainly cloudy day is expected across much of the state on Thursday, with the best chance of clearing skies into the afternoon hours across portions of southwestern Minnesota. Highs range from near 60F along the North Shore to near 80F in southwestern Minnesota where the longest period of sunshine occurs.


Strong Storms Possible Friday/Friday Night - Quiet & Warm Weekend

Friday: While most of the day will feature mostly sunny skies, a few storms can't be ruled out in the afternoon and overnight hours. A few of the storms could be strong, especially from the northwest metro north and westward. Highs climb to around 80F (record high: 89F in 1897). Strong southeast winds gusting up to 30 mph are anticipated.

Saturday: A few lingering showers or storms are possible in the morning, otherwise mainly sunny skies are expected with highs in the low 80s for the last day of September (record high: 87F in 1897). Strong southerly winds to 15 mph are expected.

Sunday: Another mainly sunny and warm day is expected to begin the month of October (maybe get an iced pumpkin spice instead of a warm one!). Highs look to be in the low to mid-80s (record high: 87F in 1897). Strong southeast winds up to 15 mph are predicted.

As mentioned above, a few of the storms Friday afternoon and evening could be on the strong side from southwestern to central Minnesota - clipping the northwestern metro. This is where a Marginal (threat level 1/5) is in place. Large hail is the main threat from strong storms.


I Am Sensitive To Your Weather Despair
By Paul Douglas

The truth is harsh but it may just set you free: the atmosphere doesn't care about our hopes, plans or outdoor events. With a fickle, chaotic weather there are always winner and losers, and last weekend's deluge was no exception.

Much of the MSP metro picked up 3-5" of rain, putting a big dent in the drought. But much of western Minnesota saw far less rain.

On social media someone tweeted: "This is so depressing for those of us that got a total of .20". Please be sensitive to our despair!" I feel your pain. I do. Hopefully over time it all evens out.

This may be the warmest Twin Cities Marathon on record with Sunday morning readings in the 70s to near 80F; an afternoon high close to a record high of 87F. The normal high now at MSP is 69F.

Expect more sun today, but showers and T-storms prowl the state Friday, especially north and west of MSP. We break out into a warm, sticky, August-like pattern Saturday PM into Tuesday of next week with a streak of 80s. In early October.

I hear it will cool down. Eventually.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Peeks of sun, not bad. Wake up 60. High 71. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: T-storms most numerous north of MSP. Wake up 61. High 79. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Early T-storm, then warm sunshine. Wake up 65. High 81. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Hello August. Sunny, warm and dry. Wake up 68. High 86. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny with a warm breeze. Wake up 67. High 85. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Lukewarm with a few T-storms. Wake up 69. High 80. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing and a bit cooler. Wake up 63. High 74. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 8-13 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 28th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 52 minutes, and 12 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Sunlight? October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 51 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises At/After 7:30 AM? October 17th (7:31 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 6:30 PM? October 14th (6:30 PM)

This Day in Weather History
September 28th

1983: Late summer-like temperatures arrive in Minnesota with 91 degrees at Montevideo and 90 degrees at Elbow Lake.

1895: A 'furious wind' at Pleasant Mound in Blue Earth County blows down grain stacks and corn shocks.


National Weather Forecast

Stormy weather continues on Thursday across the Ohio Valley to the East Coast and down to the Gulf Coast. A system working across the Northern Plains brings storm chances from Montana to Minnesota. Meanwhile, a system approaching the Pacific Northwest will bring rain and mixed precipitation chances.

A few areas of heavy rain are possible for the second half of the week across the lower 48 - one in the Pacific Northwest, another in the Ohio Valley, and a third in parts of Florida. All these locations could see at least 1-3" of rain, with some heavier amounts expected.


'Not nearly enough.' IEA says fossil fuel demand will peak soon but urges faster action

More from CNN: "Global demand for oil, natural gas and coal is likely to peak by 2030 — an "encouraging" development but "not nearly enough" to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. Planet-heating pollution from the energy sector is also set to peak this decade, the IEA said in an update to its landmark "Net Zero Roadmap" report. Fatih Birol, the agency's executive director, told reporters Tuesday that the "path to the 1.5 degrees target is narrowing" but there were "legitimate reasons to be hopeful." "Mainly, we are seeing that a new clean energy economy is emerging around the world," he said."

How to save plants from climate change? Just ask them

More from UCLA: "Redwoods and oaks that thrive on California's coastline and coastal mountains might soon start finding it harder to survive. Human-caused climate change is altering the temperatures and rainfall patterns to which those and other trees are accustomed, and many have already been pushed close to the edge of what they can endure. Identifying suitable new habitats will soon become a matter of life or death for some California native species, according to Lawren Sack, a UCLA professor of ecology and evolutionary biology. But if those trees could talk, where would they tell scientists they wanted to live? In a new study, a team led by Sack and other UCLA biologists deciphered a secret language in leaves and woody stems that points to the species' optimal habitats. Scientists could use that information to better identify new locations where they could establish new populations of plants and to develop better protections for their existing habitats."

Iowa Was a Wind Energy Leader—Then Memes Slowed Its Clean Energy Transition

More from Distilled: "Over the past several years, as the country has accelerated the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, opposition to wind and solar has skyrocketed across the United States. Much of this opposition—especially when it comes to wind energy—has been propped up by those who stand to gain from renewable energy failures, especially the oil and gas industry, and their allies. But some of the most significant changes at the local level in one of the country's most wind-heavy states are happening free of any obvious or direct dark money influence. In Iowa, grassroots activists are using the power of social media to help organize to pass policies that will significantly slow the transition to clean energy."


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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser