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Unsettled Weather Ahead
Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Wednesday, which shows unsettled weather in place late weekend through early next week. Saturday night into Sunday could potentially be wet with thunderstorms in place. There is also a risk for some isolated strong to severe storms close to home on Monday. Stay tuned.
Precipitation Potential Through Next Week
Here's the extended precipitation outlook through next week, which shows fairly impressive rainfall amounts across the region. Some spots across the northern half of the state could get 1" to 2" of rain or more.
Precipitation Since January 1st
The last several weeks have been quite active across the Midwest and precipitation amounts have been fairly appreciative in some locations. Note that the Twin Cities has seen nearly 8.50" of liquid so far this year, which is the 21st wettest start to any year on record in the Twin Cities. Marquette, MI is nearly 4.25" above average precipitation so far this year and is good enough for the 5th wettest start to any year on record. Meanwhile, Sioux Falls, SD is nearly -3.00" below average and the 18th driest start to any year on record.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st
Minnesota Drought Update
Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 6% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.
2022 Official Ice Out Dates
More and more lakes are going ice out across the state. However, thanks to a chillier than average month of April, several lakes went out a little later than average. According to the MN DNR, Lake Minnetonka went ice out on April 15th, 2 days later than normal (April 13th). Lake Mille Lacs typically goes out April 25th, but went out on May 2nd. Look for more ice outs over the coming days and weeks. It won't be long now before the land of 10,000 unfrozen lakes returns!
Average Ice Out Dates
We're still several weeks away from ice out across parts of the state, but according to the MN DNR, here's a look at the average ice out dates for lakes across the state. Note that some lakes across the southern part of the state typically see ice out around the end of March. Lake Minnetonka typically doesn't see ice out until mid April. A few lakes in far northern & northeastern MN don't see ice out until late April or early May.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Status of Spring
"May 2, 2022 - Spring leaf out continues to progress across the country. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. In the East, spring leaf out is patchy this year, arriving days to weeks late across much of the Southeast and upper Midwest, and arriving days to weeks early across the southern part of the Midwest, the Southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Parts of Maine are over a week early. In western states, spring leaf out is also patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Parts of Montana and South Dakota are 2-3 weeks early. Spring bloom is also spreading north, arriving days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. The mid-Atlantic is patchy, several days early in some locations and several days late in others. The southern part of the Midwest is several days to a week late."
Saturday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday shows mostly sunny skies and mild temps. Highs will approach 70F, which will be above average for early May.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temperature starting in the upper 40s in the morning and warming to near 70F in the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will be in place much of the day. Winds on the other hand will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 20mph to 25mph out of the southeast.
Weather Outlook on Saturday
Temps around the region on Saturday will warm into the 60s and 70s across much of the state, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for early May. Note the 80F high in Pierre, SD; this is the warmer and more unsettled weather that will settle in late weekend and into early next week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis into next week shows temps running well above average for a change, especially on Monday and Wednesday when highs will warm into the 80s. It'll also be more humid with dewpoints climbing into the 60s!
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows a big change in the temperature department. After a very chilly spring so far, temps into next week will be MUCH warmer with highs warming into the 70s and 80s with chances of showers and storms. Some of the storms Monday could be a little on the strong side, but we could also be dealing with locally heavy pockets of rain.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be quite a bit warmer over the next week or two. Both models are hinting at highs in the upper 80s later next week. It'll definitely feel like summer!
6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 6 to10 day temperature outlook shows above average temps in place over the Central and Northeastern part of the nation. Meanwhile, folks in the Western & Northwestern US will be a little cooler than average.
6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 6-10 Day precipitation outlook shows a better chance of active weather in the Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states. Drier weather will be found in the Southern and Southwestern US.
Today Is The Day We've Been Waiting For
By Paul Douglas
If only it could stay like THIS into September. We don't yet have technology to do that and never will, by the way. Endure the bad, soak up the good. We are all bewildered spectators.
Encourage your favorite mom to wander outside today, without question the nicer day of the weekend. A blue, lukewarm, story-book sky, low humidity and no big bugs yet.
The approach of warm, steamy air sets off a few showers on Mother's Day, keeping temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler. A July-like warm front sparks thunder early Monday, with enough afternoon sunshine for 80s. More 80s are likely next Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, ensuring a sticky, unstable sky capable of a few spirited rounds of thunderstorms. Yes, real heat usually brings red blobs on Doppler. That said, it'll feel like July.
No flurries for Fishing Opener this year. Long range models suggest 70s with a few showers and T-storms on Saturday, May 14. With a falling barometer fish may actually be biting. That's above my paygrade. But warmer days are coming!
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Sunny, postcard perfect. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 71.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing Clouds. Showers late. Winds: SE 15-25. Low: 53.
SUNDAY: Few showers, possible thunder. Winds: SE 15-25. High: 62.
MONDAY: Early thunder, then warm sunshine. Winds: S 15-30. Wake-up: 59. High: 82.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, drying out. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: 77.
WEDNESDAY: Sticky sun, few T-storms. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 59. High: 82.
THURSDAY: Muggy with a few strong T-storms. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 64. High: 84.
FRIDAY: Still summerlike, passing T-storm. Winds: SE 15-25. Wake-up: 70. High: 86.
This Day in Weather History
May 7th
1916: Strong winds sweep across the state and cause dust storms over southern Minnesota. Great damage is done to standing timber in Northern Minnesota. Many fires develop, one of which would destroy 30,000,000 feet of lumber.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 7th
Average High: 66F (Record: 92F set in 1963)
Average Low: 47F (Record: 24F set in 1885)
Record Rainfall: 1.31" set in 1933
Record Snowfall: 0.1" set in 1885
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 7th
Sunrise: 5:53am
Sunset: 8:25pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 32 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 33 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 5 Hour & 46 Minutes
Moon Phase for May 7th at Midnight
0.7 Days Before First Quarter Moon
National High Temps Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday shows well below average temps in the Eastern US with highs running nearly -10F to -15F below average from Atlanta to Portland, ME. Meanwhile, much warmer temps are building in the Southwestern & Central US, which will be in place over the next several days and will slowly slide east over time.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the national weather outlook through the weekend. A storm system will move through the Eastern US with cooler temps and steady T-Showers. Meanwhile, a storm system will move out of the Northwest and will bring widespread showers and storms late weekend and into early next week.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the Upper Midwest. There will also be some heavier across the high elevations in the Pacific Northwest.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through next week, which shows areas of heavier snow in the high elevations in the Western US.
Climate Stories
"Scientists in Antarctica discover a vast, salty groundwater system under the ice sheet – with implications for sea level rise"
What was the big takeaway from your research?
"First, it helps to understand that West Antarctic was an ocean before it was an ice sheet. If it disappeared today, it would be an ocean again with a bunch of islands. So, we know that the bedrock below the ice sheet is covered with a thick layer of sediments – the particles that accumulate onto ocean floors. What we didn't know was what was in the tiny pore spaces among those sediments below the ice. We expected to find meltwater coming from the ice stream above, a fast-moving channel of ice that flows from the center of the ice sheet toward the ocean. What we didn't expect, but we found in this thick layer of sediments, was a huge amount of groundwater – including saltwater from the ocean. Our findings suggest that this salty groundwater is the largest reservoir of liquid water below the ice stream we studied, and likely others, and it may be affecting how the ice flows on Antarctica."
See more from The Conversation HERE:
"Officials Will Release Less Water Into Lake Mead Because of Drought"
"The United States Bureau of Reclamation announced this week it will hold back about 480,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell instead of releasing it into Lake Mead—the nation's largest human-made reservoir that supplies water to about 25 million people. Additionally, about 500,000 acre-feet of water be released into Lake Powell from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, which is approximately 455 river miles upstream, per the statement. "We have never taken this step before in the Colorado River basin," Tanya Trujillo, an Interior Department assistant secretary, said in a press conference, per Reuters' Daniel Trotta. "But the conditions we see today, and the potential risks we see on the horizon, demand that we take prompt action."
See more from Smithsonian Mag HERE:
"The California ski season has officially been extended thanks to seven feet of fresh snow"
"It's May, and at this point most people are thinking of summer sports, not skiing and snowboarding. But at Palisades Tahoe — a ski resort deep in California's Sierra range — a late season dump of seven feet of snow in April means skiing is happening until May 30. As reported by SnowBrains, Palisades Tahoe offers the longest skiing and riding season in Tahoe. All other resorts in the area have already closed down. That April snowfall gave the upper mountains more snow than in November, January, February and March combined. And while very welcome, the snow also caused electrical issues like power surges for certain lifts. On April 21, the weather was so intense (overnight, five inches of snow at the base and a whopping eight inches on the upper mountains) that lightning rolled in and staff completely froze operations to prevent avalanches."
