The Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11 interviewed 800 Minnesota likely voters between Sept. 21 and Sept. 23. Findings from questions about the 2020 presidential race, President Donald Trump's job performance and mail-in voting are below. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Scroll down the page for details about how the poll was conducted, a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll and the demographics of the 800 respondents.
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote?
Joe
Biden Donald
Trump Other: 2% Undecided 48% 42% 8% Biden Trump Other Undecided Hennepin/ Ramsey 70% 22% 4% 4% Rest of metro 41 48 2 9 Southern Minn. 36 53 1 10 Northern Minn. 36 54 1 9 Men 44 48 2 6 Women 52 36 2 10 DFL/ Democrat 85 7 3 5 Republican 10 81 1 8 Independent/ other 44 41 3 12 18-34 63 21 4 12 35-49 45 44 2 9 50-64 45 47 2 6 65+ 46 49 1 4 No college degree 40 49 2 9 College graduate 57 34 2 7 White 47 44 2 7 Nonwhite 59 25 4 12 Other candidates listed were Jo Jorgensen, Libertarian Party; Howie Hawkins, Green Party; and Kanye West, independent. If the 2020 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?
Joe
Biden Donald
Trump Undecided 49% 44% 7% Biden Trump Undecided TOTAL 49% 44% 7% Hennepin/ Ramsey 62% 29% 9% Rest of metro 48 44 8 Southern Minn. 39 57 4 Northern Minn. 38 56 6 Men 37 54 9 Women 59 35 6 DFL/ Democrat 95 2 3 Republican 2 95 3 Independent/ other 41 42 17 18-34 53 35 12 35-49 55 40 5 50-64 44 49 7 65+ 41 52 7 Under $50,000 53 40 7 $50,000 and over 43 49 8 No college degree 44 50 6 College graduate 54 38 8 Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll, May 18-20, 2020, 800 registered voters. Which one of the following public policy areas is most influential in deciding your vote for president?
Statewide Biden
voters Trump
voters Economy & jobs 23% 6% 45% Racial justice & equity 15 28 - Law & order/ crime 14 - 29 Supreme Court appointments 13 13 16 Healthcare 12 15 7 The coronavirus 12 20 1 Climate change & the environment 8 14 - National security & foreign policy 1 1 1 Other 1 2 - Not sure 1 1 1 Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's job performance as president?
Approve Disapprove Not sure: 5% 43% 52% Approve Disapprove Not sure TOTAL 44% 52% 4% Hennepin/ Ramsey 25% 71% 4% Rest of metro 46 46 8 Southern Minn. 52 45 3 Northern Minn. 60 35 5 Men 49 47 4 Women 38 56 6 DFL/ Democrat 9 88 3 Republican 81 15 4 Independent/ other 45 46 9 18-34 28 69 3 35-49 46 49 5 50-64 49 47 4 65+ 44 49 7 No college degree 50 45 5 College graduate 36 59 5 Biden voters - 97 3 Trump voters 93 3 4 Approve Disapprove Not sure: 2% 45% 53% Approve Disapprove Not sure Hennepin/ Ramsey 31% 67% 2% Rest of metro 46 52 2 Southern Minn. 56 42 2 Northern Minn. 56 41 3 Men 55 42 3 Women 36 63 1 DFL/ Democrat 3 97 - Republican 95 3 1 Independent/ other 43 51 6 18-34 37 59 4 35-49 41 58 1 50-64 49 49 2 65+ 53 45 2 Under $50,000 42 56 2 $50,000 and over 50 48 2 No college degree 51 46 3 College graduate 38 60 2 Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll, May 18-20, 2020, 800 registered voters.
How do you plan to cast your ballot in the upcoming presidential election?
In person on Election Day Absentee
ballot
by mail Drop off absentee
ballot before
Election Day 61% 26% 12% In person on Election Day Absentee ballot
by mail Drop off absentee
ballot before
Election Day Not sure TOTAL 49% 44% 7% Hennepin/ Ramsey 50% 31% 17% 2% Rest of metro 64 23 12 1 Southern Minn. 65 28 5 2 Northern Minn. 69 19 11 1 Men 62 25 11 2 Women 59 26 14 1 DFL/ Democrat 46 33 20 1 Republican 78 14 7 1 Independent/ other 59 31 8 2 <50 56 29 14 1 50+ 64 24 10 2 No college degree 63 25 10 2 College graduate 58 27 14 1 White 61 26 12 1 Nonwhite 57 25 15 3 Biden voters 44 37 18 1 Trump voters 83 12 4 1 Do you believe voting by mail-in absentee ballot in Minnesota is vulnerable to significant levels of fraud, or has adequate protections against significant levels of fraud?
Vulnerable to fraud Protected against fraud Not sure 41% 50% 9% Vulnerable
to fraud Protected
against fraud Not
sure TOTAL 49% 44% 7% Hennepin/ Ramsey 28% 59% 13% Rest of metro 50 46 4 Southern Minn. 36 54 10 Northern Minn. 52 38 10 Men 43 47 10 Women 39 52 9 DFL/ Democrat 24 64 12 Republican 64 31 5 Independent/ other 35 54 11 18-34 34 53 13 35-49 42 52 6 50-64 40 50 10 65+ 45 45 10 No college degree 45 45 10 College graduate 36 56 8 White 41 50 9 Nonwhite 34 53 13 Biden voters 15 72 13 Trump voters 70 27 3 About the poll
The findings of this Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll are based on live interviews conducted Sept. 21 to Sept. 23 with 800 Minnesota voters who indicated they were "likely to vote" in the November general election. The poll was conducted for the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News and KARE 11 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc. The sample for this survey was drawn from a Mason-Dixon database that includes approximately 2.2 million registered Minnesota voters who are matched with a telephone number – either a land line, a cell phone or both. A random sample of 100,000 voters from unique households with unique phones was drawn from this database for use in calling on this poll. Those interviewed were randomly selected by computer from this phone-matched Minnesota voter registration file with quotas assigned to generally reflect the state's voter turnout distribution by county. For example, Hennepin County and Ramsey County combined accounted for 32.3% of the statewide vote in the 2016 presidential election, and accordingly 32.5% of the survey interviews were completed there. The interviews were conducted via land line (28%) and cellphone (72%). The margin of sampling error for this sample of 800 likely voters, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping. The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 38% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 28% independents or other. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken. The demographic profile of this poll of likely voters is an accurate reflection of their respective voter populations. This determination is based on more than 100 statewide polls conducted by Mason-Dixon in Minnesota over the past 32 years – a period that spans eight presidential election cycles that began in 1988. Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com. Demographic breakdown of this polling sample
PARTY DFL/ Democrat 307 (38%) Republican 271 (34%) Independent/ other 222 (28%) AGE 18-34 146 (18%) 35-49 229 (29%) 50-64 234 (29%) 65+ 184 (23%) Refused 7 (1%) RACE White/ Caucasian 700 (87%) Black/ African American 41 (5%) Hispanic/ Latino 23 (3%) Asian/ Pacific Islander 9 (1%) Other 20 (3%) Refused 7 (1%) GENDER ID Men 384 (48%) Women 414 (52%) Other 2 (<1%) REGION Hennepin/ Ramsey 260 (33%) Rest of metro 215 (27%) Southern Minnesota 155 (19%) Northern Minnesota 170 (21%) EDUCATION High school
or less 168 (21%) Some college/
Vocational 241 (30%) College graduate 252 (31%) Graduate degree 127 (16%) Refused 12 (2%) INTERVIEW Land-line 227 (28%) Cell Phone 573 (72%)
