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Toasty Friday With A Late Day Strong Storm?
Forecast loop 1 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday.
We will be watching a cold front move across the state on Friday that could help spark off a few showers or thunderstorms. The best chance thorugh the morning hours will be across parts of western and northern Minnesota before we see a lull during the midday and afternoon hours. Late in the day, another round could fire off across southeastern Minnesota.
If we can get those storms to pop in the late afternoon or evening hours, they could be on the strong side across parts of southern Minnesota, including the southeast metro, and into western Wisconsin. A Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) is in place. Hail and wind will be the main threats.
While you can see storm icons starting to appear during the late morning hours for the metro, the greatest risk of an isolated storm will be late in the day. Since the Twin Cities will be ahead of the cold front through much of the day, temperatures will climb up to around 90F for those heading out of town early or going to the State Fair. With dew points up to the mid-60s, it'll feel just a touch warmer out. And of course, if you're walking around the State Fair, it'll feel even warmer with all that black asphalt.
As shown above, the best chance of some isolated showers or storms along the frontal boundary will be late in the day in southern and eastern Minnesota. Areas ahead of the front through much of the day (up to the St. Cloud and Duluth areas) will be 10-15F degrees above average with highs in the 80s and low 90s. The farther northwest you go is where you'll find cooler weather as the front will have already moved through during the morning hours. In these areas, highs will be in the 70s.
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Pleasant Labor Day Weekend
Behind that front, it's going to be a gorgeous extended holiday weekend for the unofficial end of summer. Sunny skies can be expected Saturday through Monday with highs in the 70s for the weekend and around 80F for Labor Day Monday.
A picture-perfect Labor Day Monday is expected to end the extended holiday weekend, with temperatures starting off in the 60s but climbing into the 70s by the midday hours. Highs should top off around 80F with mainly sunny skies.
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August Twin Cities Recap
While we had a warm start to August, temperatures moderated through the month leaving us with an overall average temperature of 72.5F... 0.7F degrees above average and the 39th warmest August on record. There were only three days with a 90F+ high.
August ended up just below average precipitation-wise, but it was the 48th wettest August on record for the Twin Cities. 26% of the precipitation for the month fell over the 27-28th.
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Comfortably Cool Holiday Weekend Coming
By Paul Douglas
Blistering 115-degree heat is predicted for much of inland California this weekend, breaking some all-time records. Of course heat waves occur naturally, but a doubling of planet-warming greenhouse gases since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, primarily from burning fossil fuels, is man-made. China's worst heatwave on record - Europe's worst drought in at least 500 years - from St. Louis and Dallas to Death Valley, five 1,000 year floods in 5 weeks. A third of Pakistan underwater; roughly the size of Wyoming. Symptoms of a warming world.
A lack of widespread wildfires upwind meant much better air quality for Minnesota this summer, but rainfall has been erratic, with moderate drought lingering over the MSP metro. A stray thundershower may bubble up by evening; best chance south/east of the Twin Cities.
I see blue sky and 70s for highs Saturday into Labor Day. Nights will dip into the 50s. Light jacket weather is imminent but 80s return next week. Winter may be coming, but it's in no particular hurry.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
FRIDAY: Hot sun, late thunder? Wake up 70. High 90. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
SATURDAY: Sunny with a cooler breeze. Wake up 60. High 76. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: Blue sky, close to perfect. Wake up 54. High 75. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Partly sunny and amazing. Wake up 58. High 78. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
TUESDAY: Sunny and warmer. Wake up 58. High 81. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Weather winning streak lingers. Wake up 60. High 82. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Warm sunshine. Wake up 62. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 2nd
*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 11 minutes, and 39 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 1 second
*When Do We Drop Below 13 Hours Of Daylight?: September 6th (12 hours, 59 minutes, 29 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7 AM?: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 7 PM?: September 27th (7:00 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
September 2nd
1996: Approximately 8 inches of rain falls over a 2 1/2 hour period in the Mankato area resulting in flash flooding. Numerous roads are closed, basements flooded, and $100,000 of damage results from a lightning strike in Lehiller.
1992: Severe weather affects several counties in the western parts of the County Warning Area. Several tornadoes are reported, along with 3/4 inch hail and damaging winds, as the system passes through Pope, Swift, Stearns, Kandiyohi, Meeker, Brown and Renville Counties.
1975: Severe weather rolls through Stevens, Swift, Kandiyohi, and Meeker counties. 1.5 inch Hail is reported in Stevens and Swift. An F1 tornado also occurs in Swift. An hour later, another F1 Tornado was reported in Kandiyohi County while 69 knot winds occurred in Meeker County. Damages were estimated at $50,000 for the two tornadoes that touched down.
1937: Strong thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall to northern Minnesota, with 4.61 inches of rain dumped on Pokegama. Flooding was reported in Duluth.
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National Weather Forecast
A stalled-out boundary from the Southern Plains to the Southeast will help spark showers and thunderstorms to end the work week. A frontal boundary moving into the upper Midwest will also bring a storm threat - some of which could be strong.
Meanwhile, record heat can be expected Friday out in the western United States, with over two dozen locations potentially setting record highs.
The heaviest rain will be in the southern United States through Saturday, where some locations could see at least 3" of rain.
Meanwhile, we are closely watching several areas in the Atlantic. First, Danielle has formed west of the Azores and has been quickly strengthening on Thursday. A broad area of low-pressure east of the Leeward Islands has a high potential of becoming a tropical depression over the next few days. And an area of low pressure near the Cabo Verde Islands has a low chance of development.
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Record-threatening, long-duration heat wave to roast Western U.S.
More from the Washington Post: "Large parts of the Western United States face a prolonged and extreme heat event that is expected to break scores of records over the next week. California's Central Valley may be particularly hard hit by this heat wave, which the National Weather Service has warned could threaten monthly records over the holiday weekend. Sacramento could be near 110 degrees on Labor Day. Abnormally hot weather has already swelled over the Pacific Northwest; Seattle and Portland set record highs of 90 and 100 degrees on Tuesday. This heat will intensify, spread over more territory in the West and become entrenched in the coming days — lasting at least a week. Even as the heat wave was only beginning on Wednesday, California ISO, the state's grid operator, issued a "flex alert" calling for voluntary electricity conservation between 4 and 9 p.m."
International report on 2021 climate: record-high greenhouse gases, ocean heat, and sea level
More from NOAA's Climate.gov: "Greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea levels and ocean heat content reached record highs in 2021, according to the 32nd annual State of the Climate report. The international annual review of the world's climate, led by scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and published by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), is based on contributions from more than 530 scientists in over 60 countries. It provides the most comprehensive update on Earth's climate indicators, notable weather events and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice and in space."
NYC may ban e-bikes in public housing following a spate of fires
More from Canary Media: "Delivery workers represent a significant share of the micromobility movement that's taking hold worldwide as cities work to curb tailpipe emissions and reduce reliance on cars. Yet in New York City, this burgeoning group of e-bike users has encountered hurdles, ones that raise complicated questions about who can access electrified transportation and how. Most recently, the New York City Housing Authority (NYCHA) has proposed banning the loosely defined category of "e-bikes" from public-housing apartments, where many delivery workers live. The proposal, announced in July, is meant to address a serious problem: the rising number of building fires linked to lithium-ion batteries. In the latest incident, in early August, a 5-year-old girl and a 36-year-old woman died after the battery of an electric moped — also referred to as scooters — exploded inside an apartment in Harlem."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
