Here's the simulated radar from AM Sunday to Monday night. The center of circulation will continue to slowly slide east with swirls of showers and thunderstorms lingering through Monday. Most of the heavy rain will wrap up early Sunday.
Rainfall Potential Through The Weekend
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, there could be some 1" to 2" total rainfall tallies across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin through the weekend. The heaviest rains will fall PM Saturday through AM Sunday, but lingering showers will still be possible through the day Sunday and into early Monday.
Fall Color Update
Here's a picture from the Lutsen Mountain webcam from earlier Thursday. Lots of color showing up from sugar maples along the North Shore. Peak color isn't far away - book those fall peeping plans now!
Fall Color Update
According to the MN DNR, the fall color season is underway and happening fast. Parts of western and northwestern Minnesota are halfway through the season with peak not far behind. Fall colors will continue to rapidly change, so take a moment and enjoy the season while you can. Note that most leaves will vacate the premises in about 1 month and won't return until sometime in mid/late May...
Typical Peak Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.
Ophelia on Saturday
Tropical Storm Ophelia developed in the Atlantic on Friday and becomes the 11th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Here's some information from Phil Klotzbach on Twitter: "Tropical Storm #Ophelia has formed off of the North Carolina coast - the 11th Atlantic named storm to form since August 20. The only season with more Atlantic named storm formations between August 20 - September 22 is 2020 (12 formations). #hurricane"
Tropical Storm Ophelia
According to NOAA's NHC - Ophelia makes landfall along the North Carolina coast early Saturday morning and will drift north through the Mid-Atlantic states through the weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the likelihood of strong winds, storm surge and very heavy rainfall. There could even been some isolated tornadoes and Ophelia moves inland.
Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.
90 Day Precipitation Anomaly
On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to early to mid June, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.
Drought continues and expanded across the State. We now have a more expanded Extreme Drought from parts of central Minnesota to southeastern Minnesota. Much of the Twin Cities Metro is now in the Extreme drought as well. Note that nearly 97% of the state is considered to be in drought conditions.
Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday will still be a little unsettled with scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder possible. Temps will warm into the 60s and 70s across the state, which will be pretty close to average for this time of the year.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, September 24th will be a little unsettled through the day. Spotty showers and storms will linger across the region with temps hovering in the 60s for much of the day. The high could reach 70F in the afternoon with breezy winds.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Weather conditions for Minneapolis on Sunday will be unsettled through the day with spotty showers and storms continuing across the region. Temps will start in the lower 60s and will warm to near 70F by the afternoon. Southeasterly winds will be breezy through day, but especially during the morning hours.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows high temps topping out near 70F through early next week, which is close to average for this time of the year. We'll see gradually warming temperatures through the week with highs warming into the upper 70s later in the week, which will be nearly +10F above average.
Somewhat Humid Weekend, Then Cooling
The max dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis looks a little humid through Sunday and Monday with lingering rain chances. The skies clear as we head into the week ahead with dewpoints falling into the more comfortable 50s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The 7 day extended weather outlook shows lingering showers and storms Sunday and Monday with highs around 70F, which is close to average for this time of the year. Things will dry out through the rest of the week with gradually warming temperatures into the mid/upper 60s later in the week.
A Slight Temperature Bump Next Week
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temperatures will be a little closer to average through the early part of next week. As we approach next weekend, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to near 80F, which will be nearly +10F above average for the end of September and early October.
Lingering rain and rumbles will continue across the Midwest on Sunday and Monday before drier and slightly warmer weather returns through the last full week of September. Another storm system will develop in the Pacific late week, which could bring another round of showers into the Midwest next weekend.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Meanwhile, the western US will be cooler than average.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather will develop across parts of the western half of the nation and could possibly spill into parts of the Midwest. Meanwhile, it'll be drier east of the Mississippi River.
Showery Rain Lingers Into Monday Night
By Paul Douglas
Well that was fun. "We interrupt this drought for downpours, severe storms and a possible tornado - on the first day of fall". Makes perfect sense to me. Welcome to an all-or-nothing weather world. Is your preference droughts or floods?
According to Dr. Mark Seeley, parts of Minnesota are running a 7-12" rainfall deficit for 2023. Over 64% of Minnesota is in severe drought or worse, and the USDA rates 20% of the state's corn and soybean crop in poor or very poor condition. This rain certainly helps, and some 1-2" amounts are possible for a few lucky towns before showers finally taper early Tuesday. It'll put a dent in the drought, but it's not the soaking we need.
A dry sky is expected Wednesday into the weekend (T-storms over far northern Minnesota) with another warm front. Are you interested in a deal on warm fronts? You may be in luck. Models show 80s the first few days of October. Wut?
A brewing Super El Nino may spark 70s deep into October and a late start to winter across Minnesota. Follow the trends.
SUNDAY: Showers, few T-storms. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 72.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of t-showers. Winds: SSE 10-15. Low: 60.
MONDAY: Showers and T-storms linger. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 68.
TUESDAY: Damp start, clouds hang around. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 58. High: 70.
WEDNESDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 56. High 73.
THURSDAY: More sun, trending milder. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 55. High 76.
FRIDAY: Warm sunshine. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 57. High 80.
SATURDAY: Wow. Plenty of sun. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 62. High 82.
This Day in Weather History
1985: 0.4 inches of snow falls in the Minneapolis area.
1982: Tropical air moves north into Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a low of 71.
1869: Heavy rain dumps nearly 10 inches on the White Earth Reservation.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 70F (Record: 90F set in 2017)
Average Low: 51F (Record: 30F set in 1942)
Record Rainfall: 1.06" set in 1934
Record Snowfall: 0.4" set in 1985
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 5 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 6 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 3 Hour & 32 Minutes
Moon Phase for September 24th at Midnight
2.5 Days Before First Quarter Moon
National High Temps on Sunday
Temperatures on Sunday will be warmer than average across the Central and Southern US with highs warming into the upper 90s across parts of Texas. Remnants of Ophelia will continue in the Northeast, where temperatures will be nearly -10F below average.
National Weather Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday looks more unsettled across the Central US with widely scattered showers and storms, some of which will be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Parts of the Northeast will be dealing with the remnants of Ophelia, so gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be possible there as well.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Monday shows Ophelia exiting the Northeast early next week, but gusty winds and heavy rainfall will still be possible in those areas. Storms will fade across the Central US through early next week, while a bigger surge of precipitation will work into the Northwest.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the Northeast as Ophelia pushes through. The Central US will see heavy rainfall in spots with strong to severe storms possible. There will also be a pretty significant surge of Pacific precipitation in the Northwest with some high elevation snow.
"RATE OF CLIMATE-INDUCED EXTINCTION IS 'SHOCKING'"
"Researchers surveyed populations of the Yarrow's spiny lizard in 18 mountain ranges in southeastern Arizona and analyzed the rate of climate-related extinction over time. "The magnitude of extinction we found over the past seven years was similar to that seen in other studies that spanned almost 70 years," says John J. Wiens, a professor in the ecology and evolutionary biology department at the University of Arizona and senior author of the study in Ecology Letters. The Yarrow's spiny lizard native to the southwestern US and western Mexico can be spotted in oak and pine forests in 18 of Arizona's Sky Islands mountain ranges. Wiens and his group did initial surveys of the Yarrow's spiny lizard in these mountain ranges in 2014 and 2015. In 2021 and 2022, Wiens, along with Kim Holzmann, his former master's student and the new study's lead author, and Ramona Walls, a part-time researcher at the University of Arizona's BIO5 institute, resurveyed to investigate if there had been any changes in the lizard populations since then."
"Wildfire risk is soaring for low-income, elderly and other vulnerable populations in California, Washington and Oregon"
"As wildfires burn across the Western U.S., the people in harm's way are increasingly those least able to protect their homes from fire risks, evacuate safely or recover after a fire. In a new study, we and a team of fellow wildfire scientists examined who lived within the perimeters of wildfires over the past two decades in Washington, Oregon and California – home to about 90% of Americans in the U.S. West exposed to wildfires over that period. Overall, nearly half a million people in California, Oregon and Washington were exposed to wildfires at some point during the past 22 years. Alarmingly, about half the people exposed to wildfires in Washington and Oregon were considered socially vulnerable. While the number of people exposed to fire rose overall, the number of socially vulnerable people exposed more than tripled between the first and second decades."
"Australian Officials Declare the Arrival of El Niño During Blistering Heat Wave"
"Australian authorities declared the arrival of El Niño, amid dangerous heat waves that are raising the country's risk of widespread bushfires. The Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) announced the arrival of El Niño in an outlook after seeing a combination of conditions that include higher-than-average ocean temperatures. "Climate model outlooks suggest this El Niño is likely to continue until at least the end of the southern hemisphere summer 2023–24," the announcement said. El Niño is the warmer phase of a natural planetary cycle. It's associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops every few years off the equatorial Pacific, and that warm water can shift global weather patterns. Officials held off on declaring the global shift as it experienced several years of heavy rain and devastating floods. And now the country can expect especially hot and dry conditions. During El Niño, Australia also sees lower rainfall."