The long-term survival of the Democratic Party in Midwestern states such as Minnesota can't be just about building support in the big cities and suburbs, or clawing back voters in deep red rural areas that swung heavily for Donald Trump.
The party must win back working-class voters in small and midsized counties with a manufacturing base at the center of their economy, according to a new report.
Released last week by longtime Democratic strategists with roots in the Midwest, the "Factory Towns" report came after conducting polling, focus groups and analyzing voter data.
"If we succeed with these quintessential working-class voters, we will have a strategy and message that we can use throughout the working-class small and midsized towns in every region in the country," reads the report. "The question is whether there is any reasonable hope that we can win these working-class voters back."
Much ink has been spilled about Democratic losses in rural areas, which were largely offset by gains for the party in the metro area. But their research found that narrative overshadowed the fact that Democrats lost 2.6 million votes in small and midsized industrialized areas in the Midwest between 2012 and 2020. Trump made direct appeals to those voters in the last two election cycles.
"If Republicans build on their success in these counties and build bigger margins there in the years to come ... the Midwest will become far more red than purple," the report warns Democrats.
These counties are defined as those centered around a city with a population of at least 35,000, or where manufacturing jobs make up at least 13% of employment. These counties are most dominant in Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio — all states Trump won in 2016.
He came within 1.5 percentage points of winning Minnesota that year, a state that hasn't swung for a Republican for president since 1972. About half of Minnesota's counties fit this description, according to the report, most stretching across the southern and central parts of the state.
Focus groups in four "factory town" counties in the Midwest found voters are uneasy about where things are headed in the country, driven largely by the economy, rising costs and polarization. They are pro-union but feel the unions have lost power.
Looking ahead to the 2022 election, the report says advertising touting the accomplishments of the Biden administration won't do well with this audience, but they are receptive to a local candidate who talks about jobs and the economy. Candidates should present solutions, rather than playing the blame game.
"For this audience, the economic debate is also a values debate, where they want to see hard work rewarded," according to the report.
The report is part warning, part pep talk. The authors argue if Democrats can develop a strategy that can bring these voters back, they could build a "long-term governing majority that they haven't had since the long period after the beginning of the New Deal."
