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Record Warmth on Wednesday
September in November? Highs could reach record levels in may locations across the Midwest on Wednesday with readings well into the 60s and 70s, which will be nearly +20F to +30F above average for early November. Note the record high in the Twin Cities is 73F and the forecast is in the mid 70s. All the highlighted numbers below are locations that are expected to reach record levels
Weather Outlook Wednesday
It'll be an incredibly warm day for early November in the Twin Cities. Highs will warm into the mid 70s, which will be nearly +25F to +30F above average for this time of the year. The only issue will be strong southerly winds, which could gust up to 30-40mph at times in the afternoon.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps on Wednesday will start off fairly mild with readings in the lower 50s. Note that the average overnight low at this time of the year is in the mid 30s. Readings will quickly warm into the 70s with highs reaching the mid 70s in the afternoon. Again, this will be a record setting day for November 2nd. Strong southerly winds will be present through the day with gusts approaching 30-40mph.
Precipitation Departure From Average This October
It was a very dry October with many locations nearly 1" to 2" (or more) below average precipitation. The Twin Cities finished -2.34" below average, which was the 6th driest October on record in the Twin Cities. St. Cloud finished at the 7th driest on record.
Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall
If you look at the precipitation deficit for the season (since September 1st) the deficit is even greater. Many locations are well below average with the Twin Cities now 5.12" below average since September 1st, which is the 2nd driest start to meteorological fall on record at the MSP Airport.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The Twin Cities is now more than 10" below average for the year, which is the 16th driest start to any year on record (through October 31st). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.50" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.
Drought Update
It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.
Record Warmth Wednesday, Then A Pattern Shift
Wednesday will be a record warm day for many in the Upper Midwest with strong southerly winds. Enjoy it because we've got some changes on the way as scattered showers push through late Thursday and into the weekend. At this point, the heaviest will be just east of the Twin Cities and into Wisconsin.
Precipitation Outlook
Here's precipitation outlook through AM Friday, which shows a decent batch of rainfall potential moving through late Thursday into AM Friday with some thunder potentially involved. Some spots could see up to 0.50" with additional amounts possible through the weekend as well. Cross your fingers, we need the rain badly!
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows very warm and near record highs possible through Wednesday. It'll still be well above average on Thursday, but we've got a pattern shift and cooler temps expected into the weekend. Highs will return to near normal levels again by Friday, which is around 50F and slightly above average into the weekend.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows well above average temperatures continuing through Thursday. However, rain and possibly some thunder arrives late Thursday with lingering rain chances through the weekend. Note that temps will be a little closer to average late week and into next week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis. The NBM Model shows temps warming into the 60s and 70s through Thursday before tumbling to more appropriate November levels as we approach the weekend and into next week. Next week could actually be a little cooler than average as we approach mid month.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps in place across the Eastern and Southern US. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will settle in across the Western US and into the Midwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather setting up from the Western US to the Midwest with drier weather across the Mississippi River Valley.
Record-Breaking November Warmth Today
By Paul Douglas
Where are my shorts? I knew I took the dock out too soon. [checks long-range weather models] Uh, never mind. Consider today a bonus, a democratically-distributed atmospheric jackpot.
The predicted high of 75F would be a record for today (old record is 72F in 1978). Impressive considering the sun is only out 10 hours and 9minutes, dragging as low in the southern sky as it did on February 9.
How much of this late season warmth is natural variability? Most of it. But background warming is flavoring all weather now, increasing the odds of unusual warm spells late in autumn.
After a balmy Wednesday clouds increase tomorrow with showery rain Thursday night into Friday. A storm rippling northward along a cool frontal boundary will prolong rain into Saturday. All told an inch of rain may fall later this week. It'll help, but we have a long way to go. The MSP Weather Service says an 11.5" rainfall deficit since June makes this the driest such stretch since 1910.
Election Day weather preview? 60s and rain showers.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, breezy and mild. Winds: S 15-30. High: 75 (old record is 72F in 1978).
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breezy with clearing skies. Winds: S 15-35. Low: 60.
THURSDAY: Fading sun, nighttime showers. Winds: S 10-20. High: 70.
FRIDAY: Colder with periods of rain. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 43. High: 46.
SATURDAY: Rain may be heavy at times. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 41. High: 46.
SUNDAY: Some sun, drying out. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 41. High: 53.
MONDAY: Patchy clouds, cool breeze. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 43. High: 52.
TUESDAY: Rain possible, clap of thunder? Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 48. High: 63.
This Day in Weather History
November 2nd
1938: A tornado touches down at Nashwauk in Isanti County. Many livestock killed.
1842: A mild spell occurs at Ft. Snelling, where the temperature rises to 60 degrees.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 2nd
Average High: 49F (Record: 72F set in 1978)
Average Low: 34F (Record: 9F set in 1951)
Record Rainfall: 0.72" set in 1901
Record Snowfall: 5.3" set in 1992
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 2nd
Sunrise: 7:52am
Sunset: 6:00pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 7 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 45 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hour & 32 minutes
Moon Phase for November 2nd at Midnight
2.0 Days Since First Quarter Moon
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well above average temps continuing across the much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation for early November. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will build across the Western US as a storm system continues to take shape.
National Weather Outlook Wednesday
Isolated showers and storms will be possible across southern Texas and the Panhandle of Florida with fairly widespread precipitation across the Western US. Keep in mind that some of the precip will fall in a wintry fashion across the high elevations with some snow accumulations possible.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Thursday turns a little more active across the western half of the nation. Widespread rain and snow showers will continue in the Western US with heavy snow accumulations possible in the high elevations, where winter weather headlines have been posted. The area of disturbed weather will move into the Central US with showers storms, some of which could be strong to severe on Thursday and Friday across the Central & Southern US.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will continue across the Western US with heavy snows in the mountains. There will also be another decent batch of heavy precipitation across the Central US, where widespread drought is in place.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), there will be heavy snowfall amounts across the high elevations in the Western US. There could even be some heavy snowfall across the High Plains and into Canada as weather conditions become more active over the next 7 to 10 days.
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