Paul Douglas On Weather
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Saturday: Rain Chances, Including For The Gophers Game

Forecast loop between 7 AM Saturday and 7 AM Sunday

We are watching a system moving in on Saturday that'll bring the threat of some showers and storms along with it - mainly Saturday into Saturday Night. Right now the bulk of the rain for the metro should move in after the Twins game, but potentially in time for the Gophers game. Unless you end up under a downpour, rainfall amounts will generally be under a quarter inch. Most of the rain should be over as we head into Sunday.

As we look at the metro on Saturday, the best potential of some scattered showers or storms will be during the afternoon into the evening and overnight. Unfortunately, this means we could see some rain during the Gophers game. Morning temperatures start off in the upper 50s with highs topping out in the upper 70s near 80F.

We'll watch those rain chances across a good portion of the state Saturday - though, during the daytime hours, northwestern and southeastern Minnesota have the highest chances of remaining completely dry. Highs range from the 60s up north to the low 80s in southeast Minnesota.


Sunday: Slowly Clearing Skies

While an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out early in the day, Sunday should be mostly dry if you're heading to the Twins or Vikings games with slowly clearing skies. Highs should climb into the low 70s.


Some 60s Next Week

We'll continue to cool through the early part of next week, with highs dipping into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. Another warm-up is expected during the second half of the week into the weekend, with 70s returning - around or a few degrees above average.


Exceptional Drought Introduced

As we have entered the meteorological fall season, the drought continues to worsen across the state. This week, for the first time since September 14, 2021, Exceptional Drought (D4 out of 4) has been introduced in two pockets across the state - one around Austin, and another in the Moose Lake area. All categories increased in percentage week-to-week - even if just slightly. The only section of the state that isn't in abnormally dry conditions is a tiny sliver of area along the North Dakota border in Wilkin and Clay Counties - a whole 0.08% of Minnesota.

There was no improvement week-to-week across the state - only degradation - once again. It was mostly across northern Minnesota that saw their drought worsen.

A good portion of the state is at least 2-4" below average rainfall-wise over the past 60 days.


Drought Expands Again - Rain Possible Later Today
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

The latest drought update is in, and once again it's not good news. While most of the metro is under severe drought (D2 of 4), two areas of Minnesota are now under exceptional drought (D4) - around Albert Lea and Austin, and around Moose Lake. It's the first time since mid-September 2021 with D4 drought in the state. At MSP, it's been the second driest May 15 through September 8 on record with only 5.97" of rain.

While a few showers or isolated storms are possible later today into early Sunday (best chance tonight, potentially during the Gophers game), it won't be drought-busting rains by any means. Highs climb to near 80F today but then are around to slightly below average through much of next week.

Meanwhile, we're up to 14 named storms in the Atlantic so far this season. That's the historical average for the entire season - all occurring before the typical "peak" of the season on Sunday. "Lee" rapidly strengthened into a Category 5 beast late Thursday, but luckily won't threaten land through early next week.


D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Afternoon/overnight rain. Wake up 59. High 78. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Slowly clearing skies. Wake up 59. High 72. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 5-15 mph.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Spotty shower north. Wake up 54. High 71. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Cool. Spotty shower or sprinkle. Wake up 52. High 67. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and nice for mid-September. Wake up 47. High 69. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Warmer. Filtered sunshine. Wake up 49. High 75. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: A few clouds around. Average high: 74F. Wake up 55. High 78. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 9th

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 51 minutes, and 4 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 3 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 12 Hours Of Sunlight? September 26th (11 hours, 58 minutes, 25 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises At/After 7:00 AM? September 23rd (7:01 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 7:00 PM? September 28th (6:59 PM)

This Day in Weather History
September 9th

1979: 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Douglas County.

1917: Very chilly air moves into Minnesota, with a low of 17 degrees at Roseau.


National Weather Forecast

A stalled-out boundary across the eastern United States and down along the Gulf Coast will bring these areas showers and storms on Saturday. An area of low pressure moving across the Upper Midwest will also bring rain chances.

Several inches of rain will be possible across the eastern United States through the weekend.


Lee rapidly intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane over Atlantic

More from the Washington Post: "Hurricane Lee intensified with breakneck speed Thursday over record-warm Atlantic waters, its peak winds catapulting from 80 to 160 mph in just 18 hours. Lee is now a top tier Category 5 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center, and will probably strengthen even more. The Hurricane Center described Lee's intensification as "exceptional" and predicted the storm's peak winds will close in on 180 mph by Friday morning — joining some of the most infamously strong hurricanes on record in the Atlantic. It noted some models project its peak winds could top 200 mph, in which case Lee would surpass them all. Only 6 percent of all hurricanes reach Category 5 strength."

As Climate-Fueled Weather Disasters Hit More U.S. Farms, the Costs of Insuring Agriculture Have Skyrocketed

More from Inside Climate News: "The country's farmers took in a record $19 billion in insurance payments in 2022, many because of weather-related disasters, according to a new analysis that suggests climate change could stoke the cost of insuring the nation's farmers and ranchers to unsustainable levels. The Environmental Working Group, which has for decades critically scrutinized the Federal Crop Insurance Program, published new research Thursday, finding that the cost of the program has soared from just under $3 billion in 2002 to just over $19 billion last year. "We found between 2002 and 2022 the crop insurance program sent over $161 billion to farmers, and annual payouts in 2022 were 546 percent more than they were in 2001," said Anne Schechinger, an agricultural economist and director at EWG. The crop insurance program has become increasingly popular with farmers over the past 20 years as a way to protect themselves from drops in prices and weather-related disasters."

ERCOT forced to declare emergency conditions in extreme heat as Texas flirts with blackouts

More from Utility Drive: "The Texas grid narrowly avoided blackouts Wednesday evening as cooling demand from extreme heat combined with thermal outages and low solar and wind output to force the state's grid operator into emergency operating conditions. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas declared an Energy Emergency Alert 2 around 7:30 p.m. local time, allowing it to bring all available generation online, utilize reserve power and call on demand response. The EEA 2 was lifted after a little more than an hour. The extreme heat led to a new ERCOT September peak demand record of 82,705 MW. Last September, the highest demand recorded was 72,370 MW, the grid operator said."


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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser