Paul Douglas On Weather
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8th Snowiest Season at MSP

With more than 80" of snow, the MSP Airport is currently sitting at the 8th snowiest winter on record! We need less than 5" of additional snow to get into the top 5, but would need almost an additional 18" to get to the top spot.

More Snow Late Week

The weather models later this week are suggesting another wintry event later this week and into the weekend. It's still way too early to get specific, but areas of rain could turn to slushy snow late week with breezy winds.

Spring Flood Outlook

"Overall Outlook More Big Changes in the last two weeks... The early March updated outlook for spring flooding in the upper Mississippi, Minnesota, and Chippewa River basins has been upgraded to well above normal, particularly on the Mississippi from St. Paul downstream. The addition of more rain and snow over the past two weeks has raised the amount of water in the snowpack to very high levels for this time of year. Factors that could help alleviate at least some of the snowmelt threat are becoming less relevant the longer the snowpack holds on. And as always, the threat of seeing major flooding will still depend on what kind of rainfall/temperature patterns we get later in March and April. Due to the nature of this year's flood potential, we will issue an additional spring flood outlook on March 23rd, 2023."

See more from the NWS Twin Cities HERE:

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows warmer midweek temps with readings up into the 40s. A larger storm system will move into the Midwest later this week with areas of rain and snow. Temperatures will fall into the 20s behind the system on Friday and Saturday, but should rebound fairly quickly as we head into next week.

Snow Depth

As of Sunday, March 12th, the MSP Airport had 11" of snow on the ground. Much of the state of Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin has a pretty significant snowpack. Nearly 2ft of snow is on the ground near Lake Superior and almost 3ft on the ground near Marquette, MI.

Consecutive Days With At Least 1" of Snow Depth

Believe it or not, the MSP Airport has had at least 1" of snow on the ground for 104 consecutive days as of March 13th, which is tied for the 21st longest stretch on record. We'll definitely have snow on the ground for quite a while, so we'll definitely be making a run as we head through the rest March and into April.

Seasonal Snowfall

Many locations are nearly 2ft to 3ft above average snowfall for the season from Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and north toward Duluth. Prior to this weekend's snowfall, MSP was sitting at 80" of snow for the season (since July 1st), which is the 3rd snowiest start to any season on record and nearly 37" above average. Duluth has seen nearly 116" of snow this season and the snowiest start to any season on record there.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, March 14th shows quiet weather in place for much of the day with sunshine and temps warming to near the freezing mark. Southerly winds will be breezy, especially late in the day with gusts approaching 25mph to near 30mph.

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Temps across the region on Tuesday will warm into the 20s and 30s across much of the state, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for mid March.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities through the day Tuesday shows temps starting in the teens in the morning with readings in the lower 30s in the afternoon. Skies will remain mostly sunny with breezy winds developing in the afternoon with gusts to near 25mph - 30mph.

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps on Tuesday will start in the single digits with feels like temps around 20F in the afternoon. It'll be a breezy day, so the feels like temps will be a bit chilly.

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions will remain quiet through midweek before a storm system moves into the Midwest with areas of rain and snow later this weekend. Winds will be breezy with falling temps in the Midwest Friday and into Saturday.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temps will warm into the 40s Wednesday and Thursday, which is a little closer to average for this time of the year. A storm system will move into the region late week with falling temps Friday and Saturday down into the 20s.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

Weather conditions will be fairly quiet through Wednesday with warmer temps. Areas of rain and snow will develop Thursday into Friday with breezy winds and falling temps into Saturday. There could be some accumulating snow close to home with gradually warmer temps Sunday into Monday.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across much of the Western US and especially across the Southwestern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much of the nation and especially in the Western and Southwestern US.

More Accumulating Snow Late Thursday
By Paul Douglas

"Your Honor, in my defense, I didn't pay my bills because I couldn't get to my mailbox. Because of drifts the size of a Ford F-150. I rest my case."

No, that probably won't fly. Even snow lovers in my orbit are quietly saying "enough already". The drought has eased, all this snow means a significantly greater risk of spring flooding. And an El Nino warming event in the Pacific is predicted for later this year, which correlates with milder winters for Minnesota.

In the meantime, with 80.3" snow at MSP, this the 8th snowiest winter on record and the snowiest winter since 2010-11. And the rumors are correct: more frozen water is brewing for later this week.

Expect more sunshine today and 40F will feel good Wednesday, before the next ex-California storm approaches with a cold rain on Thursday.

A changeover to snow is likely with potentially plowable amounts late Thursday and Thursday night. A Top 5 Winter Snowfall by the weekend? A real possibility, yes.

Minnesotans earn their summers. Exhibit A: 2023.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Sunny and breezy. Winds: S 10-20. High: 33.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and breezy. Winds: S 15-30. Low: 27.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, milder. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 41.

THURSDAY: Rain changes to snow late. Few inches? Winds: N 15-25. Wake-up: 34. High: 37.

FRIDAY: Gusty and colder with flurries. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 29. High: 32.

SATURDAY: Cold with a coating of flakes. Winds: N 15-25. Wake-up: 17. High: 32.

SUNDAY: Cool sunshine returns. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 12. High: 30.

MONDAY: Blue sky, pleasant. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 11. High: 34.

This Day in Weather History

March 14th

1943: Snow, sleet and ice cripple parts of Minnesota south of a line from Duluth through St. Cloud and Ortonville. The heaviest ice was in the vicinities of Lake Benton, Springfield and Windom. Ice thickness was 1/2 to 3/4 inch around St. Cloud to 3/4 to 2 inches in the Pipestone, Ruthton, Lake Wilson, Slayton and Tracy. A good description of the ice was submitted in one report: '…ice was 2 inches across and 1 3/4 inch deep on wire. A little frost ice near the wire with the outside solid ice. The ice was irregular in shape.' Duluth had 6 inches of snowfall at the city office with 13 inches at the airport. The ice was confined to Moose Lake and south.

1870: A severe snow and wind storm moves across Minnesota and Iowa. The 'Northern Vindicator' of Estherville, Iowa becomes the first newspaper to use the term 'blizzard' on this date.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

March 14th

Average High: 41F (Record: 73F set in 2012)

Average Low: 24F (Record: -10F set in 1897)

Record Rainfall: 0.81" set in 1989

Record Snowfall: 7.2" set in 1989

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

March 14th

Sunrise: 7:26am

Sunset: 7:17pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 50 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +3 Minutes & 8 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 4 minutes

Moon Phase for March 14th at Midnight

0.2 Days After Last Quarter Moon

National High Temps on Tuesday

Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler than average across the eastern half of the nation, where readings will be nearly -10F to -15F below average. Meanwhile, widespread heavy precipitation will be found in along the West Coast and especially in California

Heavy Precipitation in California

Extremely heavy precipitation will be found in the Western US and especially in California.

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows areas of heavy snowfall in the Northeast with widespread precipitation in the Western US.

National Weather Outlook

Heavy snow will be ongoing across the Northeastern US and especially across the Northern New England States through midweek. Meanwhile, another surge of heavy Pacific precipitation will be found in the Western US with heavy rain and mountain snow.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts across parts of the Central & Southern US with localized flooding possible. The heaviest precipitation will be found across the Western US and especially in the high elevations and in California.

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US and across the northern tier of the nation. Some spots in the Midwest could get some plowable snow once again.

Climate Stories

"La Nina, which worsens hurricanes and drought, is gone after 3 years"

"After three nasty years, the La Nina weather phenomenon that increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought is gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday. That's usually good news for the United States and other parts of the world, including drought-stricken northeast Africa, scientists said. The globe is now in what's considered a "neutral" condition and probably trending to an El Nino in late summer or fall, said climate scientist Michelle L'Heureux, head of NOAA's El Nino/La Nina forecast office. "It's over," said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University's El Nino/La Nina forecasting. "Mother Nature thought to get rid of this one because it's enough."

See more from PBS HERE:

"East Coast African States Ail From Too Much, Too Little Rain"

"Surrounded by miles of dried land and what remains of his famished livestock, Daniel Lepaine is a worried man. Dozens of his goats in Ngong, a town in southern Kenya, have died after three years of harrowing drought in the east and Horn of Africa. The rest are on the verge of starvation as rain continues to fail. "If this drought persists, I will have no livelihood and nothing for my family," Lepaine mourned. "We are praying hard for the rains." But a few thousand miles south, communities are facing the opposite problem. Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which has already caused 21 deaths and displaced thousands of others in Madagascar and Mozambique, is set to make landfall in Mozambique once more on Friday. The nation is already suffering from Freddy's first battering last month and severe flooding before that."

See more from US News HERE:

"The world's atmospheric rivers now have an intensity ranking like hurricanes"

"Atmospheric rivers, which are long, narrow bands of water vapor, are becoming more intense and frequent with climate change. A new study demonstrates that a recently developed scale for atmospheric river intensity (akin to the hurricane scale) can be used to rank atmospheric rivers and identify hotspots of the most intense atmospheric rivers not only along the U.S. West Coast but also worldwide. The study is published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Atmospheric rivers typically form when warm temperatures create moist packets of air, which strong winds then transport across the ocean; some make landfall. The intensity scale ranks these atmospheric rivers from AR-1 to AR-5 (with AR-5 being the most intense) based on how long they last and how much moisture they transport."

See more from HERE:

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