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NWS Twin Cities 2023 Spring Flood Outlook
Big Changes in just two weeks... The late February updated outlook for spring flooding in the upper Mississippi, Minnesota, and Chippewa River basins has been upgraded to above normal. The addition of another 1-2 inches of water into the snowpack (from rain, then heavy snow) has increased the threat in just two weeks. Though we have an ample snowpack, drier soils and little frost depth will help alleviate at least some of the snowmelt threat. The threat of seeing major flooding will still depend on what kind of rainfall/temperature patterns we get during the snowmelt. Spring Flood Factors. We'll examine the main ingredients we need to combine to see spring flooding in our area... Snowpack How much snow is on the ground right now, and more importantly, how much water is in that snow? Let's take a look...
More Snow Late Tuesday Into Wednesday
Another weak system will slide through the Upper Midwest through midweek with areas of of plowable to shovelable snow across Central Minnesota. Winds will be breezy with some 25mph wind gusts, so blowing snow can't be ruled out.
Snowfall Potential Through Wednesday
Shovelable to plowable snowfall will take shape across the region later Tuesday into Wednesday with some of the heavier amounts across west central Minnesota. Amounts could range from 2" to 5" within these areas with some even heavier tallis across the eastern Dakotas. Lighter amounts will be found farther south, including the Twin Cities, where some 1" to 3" tallies can't be ruled out. This could impact commutes on Wednesday.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows milder temperatures in place with highs in the 30s and possibly the 40s as we head into the first few days of March.
Snow Depth
As of Sunday, February 26th, the MSP Airport had 12" of snow on the ground, which is significantly higher than it was prior to last week's storm that dropped nearly a foot of snow or more across parts of central Minnesota and into Wisconsin.
Seasonal Snowfall
After last weeks storm system, many locations are now nearly 2ft to 3ft above average snowfall for the season from Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and north toward Duluth. 71.0" of snow has fallen at the MSP Airport so far this season (since July 1st), which is the 6th snowiest start to any season on record and nearly 30" above average. Duluth has seen nearly 93" of snow this season.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, February 28th will be fairly quiet to start with some sunshine and temperatures starting around 20F. We'll warm into the mid 30s by the afternoon with increasing clouds ahead of a quick moving system that is expected to bring snow to parts of the region late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temps across the region on Tuesday will be close to average with readings warming into the 20s and 30s across the state. Clouds will increase later in the day with areas of snow developing late.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities through the day Tuesday shows temps starting around 20F in the morning and warming to the mid 30s in the afternoon. Skies will become mostly cloudy later in the day with light snow developing in the evening and overnight. Winds will generally be out of the south around 10mph.
Hourly Feels Like Temps
Feels like temps on Tuesday will be chilly in the morning with readings in the lower 10s. It'll feel a little warmer in the afternoon with feels like temps around the freezing mark.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions will be very active in the Central US this week as a series of storms moves in from the West Coast. The first weaker system will impact the Upper Midwest late Tuesday into Wednesday, but a much larger storm system will develop in the Southern US later this week with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. On the northern edge of this will be heavier snowfall potential across parts of the Midwest and into the Great Lakes.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps through the week ahead will warm into the mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday and will be a little cooler Thursday and Friday post minor snowfall accumulation midweek. Temps don't appear too cold anytime soon as we enter the early part of March.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Weather conditions will be a little active midweek with areas of minor snow accumulations on Wednesday. We'll be a little cooler Thursday and Friday, but will warm to near 40F late weekend and early next week.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across the northern tier of the nation and especially across the Northwest.. Meanwhile, folks along the Gulf Coast will be warmer than average.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much the nation and especially in the Western & Southwestern US.
Minor Slushy Snow Event on Wednesday
By Paul Douglas
Meteorological Spring kicks off tomorrow. It should be a national holiday. Forget the calendar. If you look at the 90 coldest days of the year, winter really runs from December 1 to February 28.
March is no longer the snowiest month (that honor goes to January now) but I'll be shocked if we don't pick up 10" of snow in March, and April is a question mark. Recent springs have been trending cooler, so we'll see.
Minnesota is running a long-term, multi-year rainfall deficit, but we've had a short-term surplus since December. According to Senior Climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld, light rain and a gradual meltdown will help the drought. Sudden warm fronts and heavy rain will increase run-off, with less moisture reaching farms and lakes. Stay tuned.
I see a nuisance snowfall tonight and Wednesday, maybe 1-2", more north. I see 30s for highs through next week and no dread-inducing polar fronts in sight.
Pro-tip subzero weather becomes increasingly rare in March. Today's sun angle is equivalent to October 13.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Some sun. Snow tonight. Winds: S 5-10. High: 36.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Chance of a minor snow accumulation. Winds: ENE 5-15. Low: 28.
WEDNESDAY: 1-3" of slushy snow, gusty. Winds: NE 15-25. High: 33.
THURSDAY: Peeks of sun, light winds. Winds: E 3-8. Wake-up: 18. High: 32.
FRIDAY: More sunshine, pleasant. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 17. High: 37.
SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 21. High: 39.
SUNDAY: Light mix, stiff breeze. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 20. High: 36.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, cool wind. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 29. High: 39.
This Day in Weather History
February 28th
1981: Ice is out on Lake Minnetonka. Boats are enjoying the early thaw.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
February 28th
Average High: 34F (Record: 57F set in 1932)
Average Low: 18F (Record: -26F set in 1962)
Record Rainfall: 0.70" set in 2012
Record Snowfall: 8.0" set in 1907
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 28th
Sunrise: 6:52am
Sunset: 5:58pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 48 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +3 Minutes & 5 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 hour & 28 minutes
Moon Phase for February 28th at Midnight
3.0 Day Since New Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
Temperatures on Tuesday will be very mild across the eastern half of the nation and especially across the Southern and Southeastern US, where record warmth will be possible. Meanwhile, the Western US will be cooler than average by nearly -10F to -15F.
Record Warmth Tuesday
There will be record warmth in a few spots across the Southern US from Louisiana to Florida.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday shows Widespread precipitation across the Western US. Heavy snow will be possible in the High Elevations, with areas showers and storms along the California Coast. Areas of rain and snow will be possible in the Midwest with minor accumulations.
National Weather Outlook
A large storm will develop in the Western US with areas of heavy rain and snow in the Western US. Meanwhile showers and storms will develop in the Southern US, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts from the Central US to the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, heavy precipitation will be found in the Western US and especially in the high elevations.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US. Parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes and into the Northeast will see heavy snow as well.
Climate Stories
"ESA Biomass Satellite Set To Map Earth's Essential Old Growth Forests"
"Even in this age of advanced high-tech imagery and remote sensing, large swaths of Earth's remaining old growth forests remain as elusive as they were a hundred years ago. But with next year's launch of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Biomass satellite that should all change. It couldn't come a moment too soon. Old growth Forests are not only vital for our planet's biosphere, but they arguably are also the biggest remaining hedge in our planet's natural mitigation of climate change and global warming. Even so, accessing millions of miles of these remaining forests in a manner that would enable the detailed mapping and measurement of their canopy heights down to their undergrowth has been difficult at best."
"A 3,500-year-old bear that was perfectly preserved in permafrost is being dissected by Russian researchers now"
"A bear died on a frigid island in eastern Siberia and was perfectly preserved for 3,460 years. Now, scientists are dissecting its carcass to try to find out more about it. The carcass of a female brown bear was found in 2020 by reindeer herders, who spotted it jutting out of the permafrost. It is now being dissected by scientists at the North-Eastern Federal University in Yakutsk, eastern Siberia, Reuters reported. This is the first time a full, fossilized brown bear has been unearthed, said Maxim Cheprasov, the lab chief at the university's Lazarev Mammoth Museum Laboratory, in an exchange with Reuters."
"How the Winter Storm Could Impact California Reservoirs"
"Southern California is bracing for a cold winter storm this weekend that is expected to bring up to 5 feet of snow accumulation in certain areas. While this forecast might curtail your outdoor weekend plans, it is excellent news for the state's recovering water reservoirs. "Snowpack provides 30 percent of California's freshwater and plays a critical role in the replenishment of reservoir levels when it melts and increases streamflows in the spring and early summer," Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist and manager at the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, told Newsweek. "It's particularly important because it acts as its own storage system on top of the mountains, which is why we often refer to the snowpack as being an additional reservoir or water tower."
