The Star Tribune, MPR News, KARE 11 and FRONTLINE, the PBS series, interviewed 800 Minnesota registered voters between Sept. 13 and Sept. 15. Findings from questions about the 2020 presidential election, the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol and former President Donald Trump. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Scroll down the page for details about how the poll was conducted, a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll and the demographics of the 800 respondents.
Do you believe that Joe Biden did or did not legitimately win the 2020 presidential election?
| Yes, he did | No, he did not | Not sure |
| 60% | 26% | 14% |
| Yes, he did | No, he did not | Not sure | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | 60% | 26% | 14% |
| Hennepin/ Ramsey | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Rest of metro | 52 | 30 | 18 |
| Southern Minn. | 50 | 32 | 18 |
| Northern Minn. | 51 | 32 | 17 |
| Men | 46 | 34 | 20 |
| Women | 72 | 19 | 9 |
| DFL/ Democrat | 96 | 4 | 0 |
| Republican | 24 | 47 | 29 |
| Independent/ other | 51 | 31 | 18 |
| 18-34 | 69 | 19 | 12 |
| 35-49 | 62 | 25 | 13 |
| 50-64 | 54 | 31 | 15 |
| 65+ | 57 | 26 | 17 |
| No college degree | 50 | 33 | 17 |
| College graduate | 69 | 19 | 12 |
| Biden voters | 93 | 4 | 3 |
| Trump voters | 25 | 49 | 26 |
Which one of the following best describes your view of the events that took place at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021?
• It was an insurrection with the primary purpose of overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election
• It was a legitimate demonstration that turned violent due to the actions of a small group of extremists
| Insurrection | Legitimate demonstration | Not sure |
| 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Insurrection | Legitimate demonstration | Not sure | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Hennepin/ Ramsey | 61% | 30% | 9% |
| Rest of metro | 39 | 47 | 14 |
| Southern Minn. | 40 | 46 | 14 |
| Northern Minn. | 38 | 50 | 12 |
| Men | 34 | 53 | 13 |
| Women | 57 | 32 | 11 |
| DFL/ Democrat | 80 | 11 | 9 |
| Republican | 7 | 77 | 16 |
| Independent/ other | 44 | 45 | 11 |
| 18-34 | 58 | 28 | 13 |
| 35-49 | 46 | 43 | 11 |
| 50-64 | 39 | 49 | 12 |
| 65+ | 46 | 42 | 12 |
| No college degree | 39 | 48 | 13 |
| College graduate | 54 | 35 | 11 |
| Biden voters | 78 | 14 | 8 |
| Trump voters | 13 | 71 | 16 |
Do you feel Donald Trump did or did not incite his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6th?
| Yes, he did | No, he did not | Not sure |
| 51% | 41% | 8% |
| Yes, he did | No, he did not | Not sure | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | 51% | 41% | 8% |
| Hennepin/ Ramsey | 71% | 22% | 7% |
| Rest of metro | 43 | 48 | 9 |
| Southern Minn. | 44 | 48 | 8 |
| Northern Minn. | 39 | 52 | 9 |
| Men | 35 | 55 | 10 |
| Women | 66 | 28 | 6 |
| DFL/ Democrat | 96 | 2 | 2 |
| Republican | 11 | 78 | 11 |
| Independent/ other | 38 | 50 | 12 |
| 18-34 | 65 | 27 | 8 |
| 35-49 | 53 | 38 | 9 |
| 50-64 | 44 | 48 | 8 |
| 65+ | 49 | 44 | 7 |
| No college degree | 42 | 49 | 9 |
| College graduate | 61 | 32 | 7 |
| Biden voters | 88 | 7 | 5 |
| Trump voters | 14 | 75 | 11 |
About the poll
The findings of this Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11/FRONTLINE Minnesota Poll are based on live interviews conducted Sept. 13 to Sept. 15 with 800 Minnesota registered voters. The poll was conducted for the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News, KARE 11 and FRONTLINE, the PBS series, by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc.
Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county. The interviews were conducted via land line (31%) and cellphone (69%).
The margin of sampling error for this sample of 800 registered voters, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 37% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 32% independents or other.
Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken.
The demographic profile of this poll of likely voters is an accurate reflection of their respective voter populations. This determination is based on more than 100 statewide polls conducted by Mason-Dixon in Minnesota over the past 32 years – a period that spans eight presidential election cycles that began in 1988.
Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com.
| PARTY ID | ||
|---|---|---|
| DFL/Democrat | 298 | (37%) |
| Republican | 244 | (31%) |
| Independent/other | 258 | (32%) |
| AGE | ||
| 18-34 | 147 | (18%) |
| 35-49 | 230 | (29%) |
| 50-64 | 223 | (28%) |
| 65+ | 196 | (24%) |
| Refused | 4 | (1%) |
| RACE | ||
| White/Caucasian | 683 | (85%) |
| Black/African American | 44 | (6%) |
| Hispanic/Latino | 25 | (3%) |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | 14 | (2%) |
| Other | 25 | (3%) |
| Refused | 9 | (1%) |
| GENDER ID | ||
| Men | 381 | (48%) |
| Women | 416 | (52%) |
| Other | 3 | (<1%) |
| REGION | ||
|---|---|---|
| Hennepin/Ramsey | 260 | (33%) |
| Rest of metro | 215 | (27%) |
| Southern Minnesota | 155 | (19%) |
| Northern Minnesota | 170 | (21%) |
| EDUCATION | ||
| High school or less | 158 | (20%) |
| Some college/Vocational | 251 | (31%) |
| College graduate | 256 | (32%) |
| Graduate degree | 132 | (17%) |
| Refused | 3 | (<1%) |
| 2020 VOTE | ||
| Joe Biden | 388 | (49%) |
| Donald Trump | 362 | (45%) |
| Someone else | 19 | (2%) |
| Did not vote | 5 | (1%) |
| Not sure/Refused | 26 | (3%) |
| INTERVIEW | ||
| Land line | 247 | (31%) |
| Cell Phone | 553 | (69%) |
