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Thursday-Friday Rainfall Amounts
We saw another round of much-needed rain across a good portion of the state Thursday into Friday morning, with around an inch at MSP airport and 2"+ across portions of western Minnesota. Unfortunately, areas of Northeastern Minnesota that need the rain to help out with the wildfire situation received little if any rain accumulation.
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Saturday And Labor Day Weekend Weather Outlook
While we will start off with some fog and clouds in the Twin Cities Saturday, it looks to be a very nice start to the Labor Day extended weekend with decreasing clouds and sunny skies in the afternoon. Highs will top off in the mid-70s.
A mostly dry and fairly sunny day is expected Saturday across the state. A few showers will be possible in northeastern Minnesota, however, with a trough of low pressure in place. An isolated shower will also be possible in southeastern Minnesota late in the day. Highs will mainly be in the 70s, which ranges from a few degrees above average in northern Minnesota to a few degrees below average down south.
While most of the state will continue to see dry weather Sunday and Labor Day Monday, there will be the chance of a few showers both days up along the Canadian border due to areas of low pressure passing close by. The one that does Monday will push a cold front through Monday Night, leading to the potential of a few showers across northern and eastern portions of Minnesota into Wisconsin.
In summary for the Twin Cities, a mainly dry Labor Day extended weekend is expected Saturday through Monday with lots of sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. The next rain chance doesn't move in until Monday Night.
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An Update On The 90F Count
I think we won't be using this graphic too often past Labor Day weekend, as the average number of 90F degree days in September between 1991-2020 is only 1. The most that have occurred on record in September was 8 in 1895. So far this year we have observed 26 days with a 90F+ high, tied for the 12th most on record year-to-date. That would be tied for the 17th most on record if we didn't record any more.
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Earliest Frost On Record
My colleague Todd Nelson pointed this one out to me - Friday was the earliest date on record for a 32F degree low (back in 1974). The full record average (going back to 1873) is October 11th for the first 32F degree low, and over the past 30 years, it has been October 13th.
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The Fall Color Finder Has Updated...
It might still be a little early (especially since it's only Labor Day weekend), but State Parks across the state have started to report fall color status to the Minnesota DNR. Both Gooseberry Falls and Split Rock Lighthouse State Parks are already reporting 10-25% color, but the majority of trees are hanging on to green so far. You can follow the MN DNR Fall Color Finder throughout the fall color season by clicking here.
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Minnesota's Winter Outlook Is Unknowable
By Paul Douglas
Step away from The Old Farmer's Almanac. Yeah you! Like other contraband it should come with a warning label. The odds of (anyone) making an accurate winter prediction months in advance are roughly equivalent to forecasting where the stock market will be in January, or the state of the virus in February. Good luck with that. Too many variables in play.
It may be fun to browse, but a 3-6 month weather forecast is more horoscope than credible, science-based prediction. "Coldest in recent memory?" Blah. Blah. Blah.<p>Looking backward in time is easier. NOAA's latest 30 year averages show the average first frost at MSP is October 13. First coating of snow is November 5. First inch? November 21.
That said: plenty more opportunities to annoy nosy neighbors with your short shorts in the weeks ahead, in fact I see 80F late next week. The 3-day weekend? Plan on intervals of sunshine with highs in the 70s and no drama.
Wait, soaking rains on the weekdays and blue sky on weekends? It must be a glitch in The Matrix.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Wake up 59. High 73. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
SUNDAY: A blue, lukewarm sky. Wake up 57. High 76. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
MONDAY: Freakishly nice for a holiday. Sunny. Wake up 56. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: Early shower, then clearing. Wake up 61. High 75. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
WEDNESDAY: A few clouds, comfortable. Wake up 57. High 72. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.
THURSDAY: Spectacularly sunny. Wake up 56. High 76. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Sunny and warmer. Wake up 62. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-15 mph.
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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 4th
*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 4 minutes, and 52 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 2 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 13 Hours Of Daylight? September 6th (12 hours, 58 minutes, and 46 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 7:00 AM?: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 7:30 PM?: September 11th (7:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
September 4th
1992: Early morning storms result in 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail in Hennepin, Dakota, Rice and Goodhue Counties.
1941: A batch of tornadoes hits Minneapolis, New Brighton, and White Bear Lake, killing six people.
1925: The third consecutive day of 95 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.
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National Weather Forecast
On Saturday, a lingering boundary from the Gulf Coast to Florida will help produce some showers and thunderstorms. A system moving through the central US will also help produce some storms, with rain possible into the Great Lakes.
The heaviest rain through Sunday evening will be in the central United States, where rainfall amounts of 3"+ across western Kansas and portions of Missouri could lead to flash flooding.
Meanwhile, we are tracking Hurricane Larry out in the Atlantic. This storm will not be a threat to the United States but could bring some surf and rip current concerns to the Atlantic Seaboard next week. This system is expected to strengthen into a major Category 4 hurricane this weekend and could come close to Bermuda by late next week.
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Preparing for when the climate crisis hits home
More from Marketplace: "It will be a long time before we learn the full extent of the damage from Hurricane Ida and the remnants of the storm that tore through large parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions Wednesday. At least 22 people were killed in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Tornadoes touched down in Maryland and the Philadelphia suburbs. Meanwhile, thousands are still without power in Louisiana, days after the hurricane made landfall. One thing that is clear: Climate change is here. It will take a massive investment to help the United States better withstand and recover from its effects, and much of our housing stock just isn't up to the task. Nearly a third of the nation's homes are at high risk of natural disasters, according to CoreLogic. And low-income communities are especially vulnerable."
BLM considers revisions to public land regulations for renewable energy
More from Renewable Energy World: "The Biden administration has started the process of revising public land regulations for renewable energy projects, a move that advocates say could cut costs for wind and solar project developers. The Bureau of Land Management is soliciting public input on proposed rulemaking related to renewable energy permitting and linear rights-of-way on public lands."
Unknown waters ahead puzzle marine modellers
More from Climate News Network: "By the close of this century, the world's mariners may be sailing over unknown waters. Up to 95% of the ocean surface climates that Charles Darwin voyaged in the Beagle in the 19th century, and that became part of the global battleground during the wars of the 20th century, will have vanished. And some − perhaps most − of these climates will be of a kind that have no precedent in human history, or prehistory. Quite how sharply those familiar waters will disappear depends on what happens to global greenhouse emissions. But at the rates at which humans have been burning fossil fuels so far, somewhere between 35% and almost all the sea surface conditions will have changed, and so will the marine ecosystems that depend upon those conditions."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser
