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Major Winter Storm With Snow & Ice Through Wednesday
Key Messages
- The worst conditions will be Tuesday morning and early afternoon
- Ice Storm Warning in Southern Minnesota, where more than 0.25" will be possible.
- Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are likely for a few hours Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.
- A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for this heavy snow, with generally 6 to 10 inches expected, with isolated amounts over a foot possible
A complex and potent winter storm will cause travel impacts starting this evening, lasting through Wednesday. The worst conditions will be Tuesday morning and early afternoon. On Monday evening, a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and ice will develop across southern Minnesota. Some locations may see over a quarter of an inch of ice, and an Ice Storm Warning is in effect. On Monday night heavy snow will move into southwest Minnesota, and spread across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are likely for a few hours, which will cause significant travel impacts as visibility drops to a quarter mile at times due to the heavy snow. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for this heavy snow, with generally 6 to 11 inches total accumulation expected, with isolated amounts over a foot possible, particularly in southwest Minnesota. Elsewhere, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas that will see a wintry mix, and less snow. Please adjust your travel plans for Tuesday if possible.
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT
WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch.
WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central Minnesota.
WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to midnight CST Tuesday night.
IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Heavy icing may result in downed tree branches and power lines. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday commutes.
ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT
WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations near a quarter of an inch.
WHERE...Portions of south central Minnesota.
WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to midnight CST Tuesday night.
IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Heavy icing may result in downed tree branches and power lines. The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday commutes.
Weather Outlook
Heavy mixed precipitation will continues across the region on Tuesday with the most significant ice found in northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and into Western Wisconsin. The heaviest precipitation will move in during the day Tuesday with areas of wet heavy snow spreading across the Twin Cities, Central Minnesota and into Wisconsin.
Twin Cities Precipitation and Temperatures.
Precipitation type and rates are listed in the chart below, which shows some of the heaviest moving in during the morning and midday hours with a potential mix during the middle part of the day as well.
Icing Totals
A band of significant Icing will develop across northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and into Western Wisconsin PM Monday into Tuesday.
- Across these areas, at least a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible.
- Areas across the southern two tiers of counties - including the Mankato and Rochester areas - could see at least a quarter to a half inch of ice.
- Areas across Iowa could see up to 0.50" of ice, which could cause power outages.
- This will cause significant concerns across the region when it comes to travel and slick surfaces. Most of this is expected to fall Monday night into Tuesday.
Snowfall Potential
A heavy band of at least 6" of snow is expected to fall from southwestern Minnesota across central Minnesota, including the metro.
- The heaviest snow is expected in western Minnesota (where icing is less likely to cut into snow totals). Areas near Redwood Falls, Montevideo, and Canby, up to a foot (or more) of snow will be possible.
- This snow will fall at a rate of 1-2" per hour at times, especially in the heavy snow band from Monday night into Tuesday, meaning keeping surfaces cleared of snow will be difficult.
- The good news is wind won't be as much of an issue vs. previous storms already this snow season, so while we could see some blowing snow it won't be a major concern.
Southern Severe Threat Tuesday
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Gulf Coast States, where large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes will be possible again on Tuesday.
Heavy Rainfall in the Southern US
Areas of heavy rainfall will continues through midweek, where some 2" to 3" + amounts could cause localized flooding in spots.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The Twin Cities on Tuesday, January 3rd will be warmer than average with highs approaching the freezing mark. Heavy mixed precipitation will be likely through the day with icing and plowable snowfall accumulations.
Weather Outlook on Tuesday
Temps across the region will be running nearly +5F to +10F above average with readings in the 20s and 30s. Much of the day will see falling precipitation across the southern half of the state. Folks in far northern Minnesota will stay dry.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The weather outlook through the day Tuesday will be quite unsettled with areas of heavy mixed precipitation possible. Temps will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s with gusty northeasterly winds up to 30mph.
Hourly Feels Like Temps
Feels like temps through the day Tuesday will be in the mid/upper 10s in the morning and in the mid/upper 20s through the afternoon.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the first full week of January shows warmer than average readings through Wednesday before below average readings return late week.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook though the first full week of 2023 starts off on an active note with heavy mixed precipitation through midweek. The heaviest will be on Tuesday, but lingering snowfall will be in place on Wednesday & Thursday with cooler temps late week. We see near average temps return late weekend and early next week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows warmer than average temperatures continuing through Tuesday before cooler air moves in briefly during the 2nd half of the week. Above average temperatures return into the 2nd week of January with highs back to around the freezing mark.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures across much of the nation, especially in the Midwest/Great Lakes as we approach mid January.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the Western US.
Long Duration Snow And Ice Storm
By Paul Douglas
Another long-duration winter storm has arrived, and although it won't fit the definition of "blizzard" expect weather disruptions into Thursday morning.
Unlike our pre-Christmas blast, this is a slushy storm with temperatures in the 20s and low 30s. A surge of warmer air aloft will change snow over to sleet and freezing rain this morning. Glaze ice poses the greatest risk to the I-90 corridor of far southern Minnesota.
Some ice will reach the metro area today, but a changeover back to snow is likely, and a storm temporarily stalling out near the Minnesota-Iowa border will prolong accumulating snow into Wednesday.
How much? Enough to satisfy snow-lovers and irritate commuters. I'm still thinking 6-10" for much of the metro, but a longer period of ice will mean 3-8" far southern suburbs. Heaviest snow may fall Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
It cools off behind the storm, but I see nothing arctic. In fact, it looks downright balmy during what is usually the coldest few weeks of the year.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Icy mix, then snow. Winds: NE 15-25. High: 32.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Wintry mix & light snow accumulations. Winds: NNE 15-30. Low: 28.
WEDNESDAY: More snow, totals from 6-10". Winds: NE 15-25. High: 30.
THURSDAY: Flurries finally taper, digging out. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 27. High: 29.
FRIDAY: Peeks of sun, chilly. Winds: W 3-8. Wake-up: 8. High: 18.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, cool breeze. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 14. High: 22.
SUNDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 11. High: 21.
MONDAY: Partly sunny, average temperatures. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 14. High: 26.
This Day in Weather History
January 3rd
1981: Arctic air visits Minnesota. Embarrass, Wannaska, and Tower all hit 38 below zero.
1977: 14.2 inches of snow falls in Mankato.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 3rd
Average High: 24F (Record: 46F set in 1880)
Average Low: 10F (Record: -26F set in 1887)
Record Rainfall: 0.76" set in 1906
Record Snowfall: 9.0" set in 1906
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 3rd
Sunrise: 7:50am
Sunset: 4:44pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 53 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +58 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 7 minutes
Moon Phase for January 3rd at Midnight
2.7 Days Until Full "Wolf" Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows much warmer than average temperatures across the eastern half of the nation. Cooler than average temperatures will be found in the Western half of the nation.
Record Warmth on Tuesday
High temps on Tuesday will be warm enough for widespread record highs across the Ohio Valley.
National Weather Outlook Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday shows an intense area of low pressure in the Central US with snow and ice to the north and strong to severe thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast States.
National Weather Outlook
An intense area of low pressure will be in place across the Central US and Eastern US through the midweek time frame. Areas of heavy snow and ice will be found up north, while strong to severe thunderstorms will be found in Southern & Southeastern US. Meanwhile, another surge of heavy precipitation will be in the Western US.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation in the eastern half of the nation. There will also be another surge of heavy precipitation in the Western US, especially across California.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will continue across the Western US, but there will also be a surge of heavy snow across the Midwest.
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