Paul Douglas On Weather
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Labor Day: Upper 90s Expected

Hot weather sticks around as we head into Labor Day Monday - and while we could see a shot at 100F in the metro, it is more likely than not to stay in the upper 90s for highs. We'll see sunny and breezy weather. The record high on Monday is 98F in 1925.

The hottest we've been on Labor Day was 97F back on September 1, 1913. Remember - Labor Day is a holiday that changes its date from year to year, always falling on the first Monday of September. That's why the "Labor Day" record high and the "September 4th" record high are different. The MNDNR State Climatology Office has more on past Labor Day weather.

Another hot and mainly sunny day is expected across a good portion of the state. Highs climb into the 90s all the way up to the International Border again, with the coolest spots (70s) near the North Shore. Meanwhile, some patchy smoke could be possible in far northern Minnesota - mainly during the morning hours.

A Heat Advisory remains in place in the metro and down along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border on Monday, with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s expected.

We will also see breezy weather on Monday across the state, with winds out of the south up to around 30 mph in the metro. The strongest winds will be during the afternoon hours.


This Is Somewhat Rare Heat For September

Above is a list of the warmest recorded September temperatures in Twin Cities history. As you can see, we've only hit 100F once in September history - that was on September 10, 1931, with a high of 104F (which is the hottest temperature ever during the Minnesota State Fair). The heat we're seeing both Sunday and Monday looks to rank in the top ten - if not the top five - hottest September days on record for the Twin Cities.


Hot First Day Of School, But A Cold Front Moves Through Late

As most kids start to hit the books again on Tuesday, it's going to be a hot first day for those in southern Minnesota as some locations (including the metro) hit highs in the mid-90s. You do see some storms on our map (as well as cooler air back into northwestern Minnesota) - this is due to a cold front moving across the state that'll bring some storm chances into the metro later in the day and into the overnight hours.

Any stronger storms across the region Tuesday could be strong to severe, with hail and wind the main threats.

Behind that cold front and rain chance late Tuesday into Tuesday Night, we will see more comfortable highs for the rest of the week, in the 70s to around 80F - weather that feels more typical for the back-to-school time of year.


My Labor Day Happy Place Is a Cool Lake
By Paul Douglas

It's weird seeing 100-degree heat during Meteorological Autumn. If you look at the 90 warmest days of the year, on average, fall really starts September 1, not September 21. I saw 100-degree heat yesterday at Brainerd, Nisswa, Canby, Staples and Madison. Impressive, considering today the sun will be as high in the sky as it was back on April 7. Today will be the 31st day at or above 90F this summer in the Twin Cities, well above the 30-year average of 13 days.

Labor Day 2023 brings mid to upper 90s and another shot at 100F but big changes are coming. Thunderstorms late Tuesday may be strong to severe with showers and storms spilling into Wednesday. Models hint at some half inch rainfall amounts, which would be welcome, it won't put a dent in our drought.

A cool correction is increasingly likely. Models shows highs in the 70s the latter half of this week with a few 60-degree highs next week.

Today is probably it for 100-degree heat, but more 90s later in September? With a Super El Nino, count on it.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Hot sun. A few records. Wake up 74. High 97. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY: Steamy with strong PM T-storms. Wake up 79. High 93. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering showers and T-storms. Wake up 68. High 73. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny peeks, more comfortable. Wake up 61. High 71. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny and milder, less wind. Wake up 55. High 77. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind N 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Sunshine much of the day. Wake up 58. High 80. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Breezy, passing T-shower. Wake up 63. High 78. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 4th

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 6 minutes, and 20 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 1 second

*When Do We Drop Below 13 Hours Of Sunlight? September 7th (12 hours, 57 minutes, 11 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises At/After 7:00 AM? September 23rd (7:01 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 7:00 PM? September 28th (6:59 PM)

This Day in Weather History
September 4th

1992: Early morning storms result in 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail in Hennepin, Dakota, Rice and Goodhue Counties.

1941: A batch of tornadoes hits Minneapolis, New Brighton, and White Bear Lake, killing six people.

1925: The third consecutive day of 95 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.


National Weather Forecast

It'll be a wet, stormy Labor Day in parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains - not the best weather for the unofficial end of summer. Storms will also be possible in southern Florida and parts of the mid and lower Mississippi Valley. Hot weather is expected in the Plains and Upper Midwest squeezed between the two areas of storms in the central United States.

The heaviest rain through Labor Day and Tuesday will be in parts of the Northern Rockies to Northern Plains, where some areas could see over 3" of rainfall the next few days.


Idalia rapidly intensified ahead of landfall. Expect more of the same in a warming world.

More from Yale Climate Connections: "In the 24 hours before it made landfall in Florida on Wednesday, Hurricane Idalia underwent what Yale Climate Connections meteorologist Jeff Masters described as "a very impressive burst of rapid intensification." The storm's winds increased from 75 mph to 130 mph, exponentially increasing its potential to wreak havoc to property and people's lives. That intensification is "to be expected with hotter ocean temperatures," Masters told NBC News."

Electrifying your home is about to get a lot cheaper

More from Grist: "Making homes more efficient and more electric is critical to combating climate change. But the undertaking can be expensive and beyond the financial reach of many families. Help, however, is on the way. Residential energy use accounts for one-fifth of climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. President Biden's landmark climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, takes aim at this issue by allocating $8.8 billion to home energy efficiency rebates primarily for at low- and moderate-income households."

Renewables are on track to keep getting cheaper and cheaper

More from Canary Media: "Renewable energy already beats fossil fuels on cost globally — and according to analysts, the gap is only going to grow. By 2030, technology improvements could slash today's prices by a quarter for wind and by half for solar, according to the authors of a recent report from clean energy think tank RMI. (Canary Media is an independent affiliate of RMI.) These remarkable and ongoing cost declines have made clean energy so attractive that it now outcompetes fossil fuels for new investment: 62 percent of global energy investment is expected to flow to clean energy technologies this year."


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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser