Paul Douglas On Weather
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Soggy Sunday Ahead

Weather conditions Sunday into Monday look fairly soggy across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some of the heaviest/steadiest rains develop late Sunday and will linger through the morning hours of Monday. This looks like a steady rain with embedded rumbles of thunder that could produce more than 1" of rain for many across central Minnesota and into Wisconsin.

Rainfall Potential Through The Weekend

Sunday could be a potentially soggy day with a million-dollar soaking for some, especially north of the metro. Some locations across the northern half of the state could see in excess of 1" of rain. The Twin Cities could see a decent amount of rain, but the heaviest looks to stay north.

6th Driest Meteorological Summer on Record

It has been very dry across much of the region so far this summer with only 4.36" of rain falling at the MSP Airport since June 1st. That is nearly -5.90" below average and is the 9th driest Meteorological Summer on record with the driest being 1.65" set in 1894. Interestingly, the last summer (2022) was even drier.

7th Hottest Meteorological Summer on Record

It has also been a hot summer with readings running well above average since June 1st and good enough for the 7th hottest Meteorological Summer on record so far. Note that 2021 was the 3rd hottest and 2022 was the 12th hottest From June 1st to August 11th.

60 Day Precipitation Anomaly

The map below shows the 60 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -6.00" below average (in red/pink) since mid June. There are a few locations across the state that have surpluses, but most locations are well below average.

Drought Update

There wasn't much change in the drought from last week, but drought conditions have deepened since the beginning of summer. Some areas across the region are considered in an Extreme Drought showing up (in red). Interestingly, the last time that parts of Minnesota were in an Extreme Drought was back in mid December, nearly 7 months ago.

Hottest Days of 2023 So Far

The hottest day of 2023 (so far) was Thursday, July 27th with a high of 96F and heat index values peaking around 105F to 110F. Uffda! There have been (23) 90F days this year. Our average number of 90F days is 14.

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP

Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, August 13th will be quite a bit cooler with temps only warming to around 70s, which will be nearly -10F below average. Scattered showers and storms develop through the day with some spots possibly getting 1" of rain or more through Monday.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The weather outlook through the day Sunday looks quite a bit cooler with temps hovering in the 60s much of the day. Skies will be cloudy with areas of rain and a few rumbles of thunder likely. Southeasterly winds will be a little stronger later in the day with gusts approaching 15mph.

Weather Outlook For Sunday

Temps on Sunday will only warm into the upper 60s to near 70F, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average for mid August. Scattered showers and rumbles of thunder will develop and lingering through much of the PM hours. Have a plan b indoors as Sunday's rain looks fairly widespread and will last quite a while.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temperatures in Minneapolis on Sunday and Monday will struggle to get to 70F, which will be nearly -10F below average for this time of the year. Tuesday and Wednesday will be back to and slightly above average levels with readings back into the low/mid 80s.

Stickier Dewpoints Into the Week Ahead

The dewpoint forecast into next week looks a little sticky through Monday, but it'll be a little better as we head into early next week with readings holding around 60F.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

After a sunny and mild Saturday, showers and storms push through the region on Sunday with locally heavy rainfall. Lingering showers are possible on Monday with temps still holding into the low to mid 70s. The middle part of next week looks better and brighter with temps warming back into the lower 80s. There could be an isolated t-storm chance late Wednesday with gusty winds developing through the 2nd half of the week.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temps in the Twin Cities will be a little cooler Sunday and Monday with highs only warming into the 70s. Some folks across the northern half of the state won't even make it out of the 60s. We'll get a little boost mid-week next week with readings back in the 80s before a slightly warmer bump as we approach next weekend.

Weather Outlook

Sunday looks like a fairly unsettled day across the Midwest with scattered showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rains. That storm will move into the Northeastern US early next week with soggy skies. The next chance of rain for the Midwest will be during the middle part of next week, but the threat remains quite isolated. Meanwhile, the model below is suggesting some tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific by next weekend.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the nation, including the Midwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the Western US looks a little more unsettled across the Western US. Meanwhile, drier weather will settle in across the Central and Southern US.

Heavy Rainfall Amounts Possible Tonight
By Paul Douglas

Where does Minnesota Nice go during a hailstorm on our freeways? I witnessed it during Friday's severe (golfball-size) hail in Minneapolis: people temporarily parking under bridges to avoid chunks of ice hitting their paint jobs at 100 mph. But drivers stopped behind these self-centered bozos become sitting ducks.

1.75" diameter hail is golf ball size, and the nearly 4" diameter hail reported near Dassel was softball size. I was happy to see no hail the size of canned hams (shout-out to David Letterman).

I'm glad I hit up the Carver County Fair yesterday because showers and T-storms become widespread later today. In fact, models bring a slow-moving swirl of low pressure close to the MSP metro tonight, prolonging heavy rain. I'm a bit gun-shy after last weekend's rainfall debacle, but models hint at some 1-2" amounts close to home by Monday morning. We shall see.

Monday will feel like fall but 80s return later this week. In fact, I would bet a half-eaten corndog that we'll see 90s again by next weekend.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Rain gets heavier tonight. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 72.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain likely. A good soaking. Winds: E 10-15. Low: 60.

MONDAY: Windy and cool as showers taper. Winds: NE 15-25. High: 69.

TUESDAY: Breezy and warmer with sunshine. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 58. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Warm and windy, late day T-storms. Winds: S 15-25. Wake-up: 63. High: 86.

THURSDAY: Clouds and wind. Feels like September. Winds: NW 15-35. Wake-up: 62. High 73.

FRIDAY: Sunny and warmer again. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 60. High 86.

SATURDAY: Hot sunshine. Feels like July. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 67. High: 90.

This Day in Weather History

August 13th

1964: Minnesota receives a taste of fall, with lows of 26 in Bigfork and 30 in Campbell.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

August 13th

Average High: 81F (Record: 98F set in 1880)

Average Low: 63F (Record: 48F set in 1924 & 1997)

Record Rainfall: 2.05" set in 2007

Record Snowfall: NONE

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

August 13th

Sunrise: 6:12am

Sunset: 8:22pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 10 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 43 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 Hour & 27 Minutes

Moon Phase for August 13th at Midnight

2.1 days before new moon

See more from HERE:

National High Temps on Sunday

Temperatures on Wednesday will still be well above average across the Southern US with widespread record heat across Texas. It'll be a little cooler in the Western US and across the Central US, where areas of precipitation will be possible.

National Weather Sunday

The weather outlook on Wednesday will feature showers and storms across parts of the Central US and down into the Southeast. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Sunday shows unsettled weather across the Central US. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible from the Midwest to the Great Lakes over the next several days. We'll also see a decent rain blob across the Central US associated with some thunderstorm activity. Monsoon thunderstorms will continue in the Southwest, but Texas and the Pacific Northwest look to remain dry.

Climate Stories

"NOAA Upgrades Weather and Climate Prediction Supercomputers"

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced an expansion of the capacity of the nation's Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS). The result will be an improvement in NOAA forecast models and additional advances in weather prediction. The NOAA's two supercomputers, named Dogwood and Cactus, are located in Manassas, Virginia, and Phoenix, Arizona, respectively. Each supercomputer gained a 20 percent increase in capacity, allowing them to process 29 quadrillion calculations per second. "Our investment in high-performance computing will pay off with better U.S. weather modeling," said Michael C. Morgan, Ph.D., assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction. "Forecast model upgrades made possible by this increased computing capacity will bring improved and timely forecasts and warnings that better protect life and property."

See more from the Inertia HERE:

"Climate projections detail future risks for many people worldwide"

"Extreme weather events have dominated the news this summer, with reports on extensive wildfires in Canada; dangerous flooding in India, Japan, and the Eastern U.S.; severe heat waves in Spain, China, the United States, and Mexico; and the hottest day ever recorded on Earth. A recent study conducted by scientists at the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute (BAERI) and NASA Ames Research Center provides a thorough examination of how these extreme events will worsen as our planet's temperature creeps upwards, and where these events are more likely to clash and combine in ways that significantly impact people's lives and livelihoods."

See more from HERE:

"The ocean is shattering heat records. Here's what that means for fisheries"

"Scientists first spotted the Blob in late 2013. The sprawling patch of unusually tepid water in the Gulf of Alaska grew, and grew some more, until it covered an area about the size of the continental United States. Over the course of two years, 1 million seabirds died, kelp forests withered, and sea lion pups got stranded. But you could have easily missed it. A heat wave in the ocean is not like one on land. What happens on the 70 percent of the planet covered by saltwater is mostly out of sight. There's no melting asphalt, no straining electrical grids, no sweating through shirts. Just a deep-red splotch on a scientist's map telling everyone it's hot out there, and perhaps a photo of birds washed up on a faraway beach to prove it. Yet marine heat waves can "inject a lot of chaos," said Chris Free, a fisheries scientist at the University of California, Santa Barbara. It's not just gulls and sea snails that suffer. Some 100 million Pacific cod, commonly used in fish and chips, vanished in the Gulf of Alaska during the Blob. In British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, salmon runs – and the fishing industry that depends on them – floundered. The acute warming also triggered a toxic algal bloom that disrupted the West Coast's lucrative Dungeness crab business."

See more from Grist HERE:

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