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State Farm insurance agent Jeremy Savageau knows what he calls “a little bit” about the laws of probability, but even he can’t calculate these odds.

Two days after Minnesota golf courses opened by executive order, Savageau and three playing partners were on the third hole at the Refuge Golf Club in Oak Grove. They discussed just what constitutes a made putt or shot — and the improbability of making a hole-in-one — in this age of the coronavirus, where raised cups to encourage “no touch” policies now prevent a ball from dropping into the hole.

Friday, playing the same hole with three nephews, Savageau swung his 9 iron and launched a 138-yard shot that landed a yard behind the flag, then rolled backward until it settled against foam and a plastic ring inserted into the hole.

Savageau called the odds “astronomical” that such a shot would come to rest just inside the cup’s grass edge.

“We were just talking on that same hole about how are we going to make a judgment if nothing can be holed?” he said. “How will you know if somebody gets a hole-in-one if it rolls right over the hole and you’re 175 yards away and you can’t see it. And then it actually happened, just perfectly.”

His friends on Facebook universally agreed he made a hole-in-one after he posted a photo. Following a golf tradition, Savageau bought beer for arriving friends and gave his nephews cash to celebrate.

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“He gave us $20 to split and me and my cousins went and bought a few hot dogs and some candy bars,” said his 15-year-old nephew Peyton Savageau, who played with his uncle both days. “It 100 percent happened. It was awesome.”