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The best news for the Twins coming out of the All-Star break might be that they have wins in hand, not games in hand, over their nearest AL Central competitors.
In such a mediocre division, it's almost certainly better to have played and won a little more than you've lost than to have not played at all.
Minnesota held a two-game lead over Cleveland at the break, and all of that was in the win column (50-44 vs. 46-44). The three-game edge over the White Sox (46-46) was similar.
But with 42% of their games still left in the second "half" of the season starting Saturday against Detroit, the Twins are far from the finish line. On Friday's Daily Delivery podcast, I took a look at five predictions for the final 68 games and what they might mean in the big picture of the season.
Here are the players and themes I dissected:
1 Alex Kirilloff is poised for a big final two-plus months: After a disappointing start to the season during which the second-year first baseman/outfielder was again bothered by a wrist injury, Kirilloff went to St. Paul and clobbered Class AAA pitching. His overall numbers this year (.268 batting average, .712 OPS) only look OK, but they are still being weighed down by that terrible start. Since coming back up on June 17, Kirilloff is hitting .298 with an .808 OPS and should be a force in the middle of the lineup as play resumes.
2 Sonny Gray will need to be sharp: Gray contributed to the Twins' July pitching swoon, allowing 14 earned runs over 13.1 innings and three starts as his ERA swelled from 2.17 to 3.71. He made two trips to the injured list during the first half of the season as well. But historically, August has been the best month of Gray's career (2.78 ERA). The Twins' overall fortunes don't rest solely on his right arm, but it's pretty close.
3 Twins will add relief: I'm not sure who, and I'm not sure how. But the Twins will add one significant relief pitcher and perhaps another helpful bullpen arm before the Aug. 2 trade deadline. And don't forget Kenta Maeda could return from Tommy John surgery and help as a reliever in September.
4 No big trades from the current MLB roster: It's tempting to dream up scenarios by which the Twins trade Carlos Correa for a haul of prospects or make a big swing by dealing away another core position player. It's just hard to imagine it happening given that we're less than two weeks from the trade deadline and the Twins are in first place. Max Kepler is a name that keeps being brought up, but given Trevor Larnach is going to be out for a while longer, that just doesn't make much sense.
5 Division race will go down to final weekend: Even with the White Sox showing signs of life and Cleveland having a legit pitching staff, it's hard to imagine any of the division's contenders running away with the title. The Twins play Chicago nine times and Cleveland eight times between Sept. 2 and the end of the year — including a three-game season-ending series in Chicago that I think will determine the division title. Buckle up!
