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Fall Color Update
Here's the fall color update for Minnesota & Wisconsin. Thanks to recent frost overnight lows and dwindling daylight - peak color is coming fast to a backyard near you. Note that peak color is already being reported across parts of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin with near peak color in many other locations. Get out there and enjoy it quick before it's too late!
See more from the MN DNR HERE & Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
What Causes Fall Colors?
The chemicals
Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall: Chlorophyll, Carotenoids, Anthocyanins, Tannins. Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
How Does Weather Affect Fall Color?
Few Showers Wednesday
Here's the HRRR model from AM Wednesday to AM Thursday, which shows isolated and very light rain showers drifting through the Midwest. Unfortunately, rainfall amounts will be very light and should generally be 0.10" to 0.20" at most only for a few locations.
Precipitation Potential
Here's the precipitation potential through AM Friday, which shows very light rainfall amounts across the state. Most locations will be lucky to see 0.05" to 0.10" tallies, but a few lucky communities in the Southwestern & Northeastern part of the state could see 0.10" to 0.20", but it won't be very widespread.
Coolest Air of the Season Arrives Late Week
Here are the coolest high temps of fall so far at MSP. The coolest day was 57F on September 23rd with a number of other days seeing highs only warming into the 60s. However, temps later this week will only warm into the 40s and 50s, which will likely be the coolest daytime highs of the season so far.
Sharp Cold Front Arrives Midweek
Here's the 850mb temp anomaly from AM Wednesday to AM Saturday. Note the oranges and reds in place through midweek, which suggests above average temps through that time frame. However, there is a sharp cold front that will blast through late Wednesday with temps tumbling into the 40s and 50s on Thursday and Friday across the state with widespread frost/freeze concerns. This will be some of the coldest air of the season!
Much Colder Late Week
Here's a look at the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis. Note that highs will warm into the 70s again on Wednesday before the bottom falls out late week. High on Thursday and Friday will only warm into the 40s and 50s across the state, which will be well below average for early October and likely some of the coolest air of the season so far. Will should rebound a bit late weekend and into early next week with highs back into the 60s, which will be close to average for this time of the year.
Widespread Frosty Mornings Ahead
Weather models are still pretty gung-ho on some cold air at the end of the week with widespread frost/freeze potential on Friday & Saturday mornings. At this point, temps could dip into the 20s and 30s across much of the state. Stay tuned...
Cold Friday Highs
Daytime Highs on Friday will be some of the coolest air of the season. Note that highs will only warm into the 40s and 50s across the state, which will be nearly -15F below average.
Severe Drought Continues in the Metro
According to the US Drought Monitor (updated September 27th), severe drought continues in the Twin Cities. Areas of moderate to severe drought stretch from the Twin Cities to the MN River Valley, where precipitation amounts are running several inches below average since January 1st.
Average First Frost For MSP
Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.
First Measurable Snow at MSP
Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.
Weather Outlook on Wednesday
Temperature on Wednesday will still be nearly +5F to +10F above average for the 5th day of October. There could be a few isolated showers here and there, but they won't be very widespread.
Weather Outlook Wednesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows mostly cloudy skies in place during the day with temperatures warming to near 70F. Isolated showers and possibly a clap of thunder will be possible during the day, but it won't be very widespread. Rain chances will diminish as we head through the evening.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps starting around 60F in the morning and warming to near 70F by the afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible through the day with a clap of thunder possible. Rain chances will diminish by the evening with winds turning more northwesterly late in the day as colder air begins to plunge into the area overnight.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows temps warming into the 70s once again Wednesday, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for early October. However, temps will cool down significantly late week with highs only warming into the 40s and 50s with frosty overnight lows.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows one last mild day Wednesday before much colder air moves in late week. We'll gradually warm to near average temps late week and into early next week, but it'll be dry through that stretch.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across the Midwest, Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic States. Meanwhile, warmer than average temps will settle in along the West Coast.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest and Southeast. More active weather will be found in the Southern & Southwestern US.
Cooler Slap But More 70s Next Week
By Paul Douglas
Colder fronts are coming (no kidding, Paul) but don't write "Aug-tober" off just yet. More lukewarm days are brewing next week. By the way, the new definition of "warm front" is 70s, if anyone asks.
I'm conflicted: in an expanding and deepening drought the definition of "nice weather" is morphing. Right now nice weather would be a storm or front stalling overhead with 5" of rain spread out over a week. An old-fashioned October soaker. The odds of that are slim looking out 1-2 weeks, but a guy can dream.
A weak upper level storm may kick off a few spotty showers today. Rainfall amounts will be negligible for most of us. A strong north wind kicks in on Thursday and by Friday daytime temperatures may be stuck in the 40s. And yes, it's ALWAYS fashionable to wear a sweatshirt over your shorts. No judging.
Skies clear and temperatures mellow this weekend, and a few models hint at 70-degree warmth a day or two next week.
You may have noticed: Boxelder season is back. Pro-tip: they taste best on crackers.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Clouds, few showers. Winds: W 5-10. High: 70.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Winds: WNW 5-15. Low: 50.
THURSDAY: Cloudy and windy, passing sprinkle. Winds: N 15-30. High: 57.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy and brisk. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 44. High: 50.
SATURDAY: Blue sky, fine fall day. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 37. High: 56.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and milder. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 43. High: 65.
MONDAY: Some sun, a bit cooler. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 43. High: 58.
TUESDAY: Intervals of sun, milder breeze. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 49. High: 75.
This Day in Weather History
October 5th
1963: A heat wave hits part of Minnesota with highs of 98 at Beardsley, 96 at Madison, and 94 at Elbow Lake.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 5th
Average High: 64F (Record: 88F set in 2011)
Average Low: 46F (Record: 25F set in 1952)
Record Rainfall: 2.31" set in 1911
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1952 & 1991
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 5th
Sunrise: 7:16am
Sunset: 6:46pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 30 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 5 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hour & 10 minutes
Moon Phase for October 5th at Midnight
3.3 Days Since First Quarter Moon
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well below average temperatures lingering across the Eastern US in the wake of Hurricane Ian. Meanwhile, warmer than average temps will be found from the Midwest to the Pacific Northwest.
National Weather Outlook Wednesday
A few showers will linger across the Mid-Atlantic States, where the remnants of Ian will still be in place. Meanwhile, an area of T-showers will work through the Midwest with light rainfall amounts, followed by much cooler air late week. There will also be areas of T-Showers in the Southwest with locally heavy rainfall.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Thursday shows remnants of Ian finally fading across the Mid-Atlantic States with breezy, cool and showery weather ending late Wednesday. Areas of t-showers will slide through the Midwest and Great Lakes through midweek with showers and storms in the Southwest.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy rain from the remnants of Ian will begin to fade in the Mid-Atlantic States. Areas of heavier rain will be possible in the Southwest
Climate Stories
"The Sun Released a Powerful, X1 Solar Flare and NASA Took a Photo of It"
"The Sun is going through something now, and it is heating up more than its normal temperature, which at the same time, released solar flares and rated X1, one of the hottest there is on its scale. NASA was able to document the experience and share the development with the world, showing some bursts of light of the central figure. Its emissions of the solar flares peaked last Sunday, showing this massive activity of the bright star. NASA's blog recently released a report regarding the latest solar flare which took place last Sunday, October 2, with its peak that took place at around 4:25 p.m. EDT. The team noted that this particular solar flare is X1, and the X-class is the most intense on the agency's scale for the many outburst of the Sun."
See more from Tech Times HERE:
"What to See in the Night Sky for October 2022"
"With crackling leaves underfoot and shorter days on the horizon, it's time to stow away the summer gear, break out the sweatshirts, and make our transition into cool evenings and frosty mornings. Below is just a handful of celestial highlights to look forward to in this season of glowing pumpkins, colorful foliage, and the occasional high-flying witch. The Draconids Meteor Shower Peaks (Oct. 8) It's time for the annual Draconids meteor show, which happens every October. This year the shower peaks on the evening of October 8 but you can also watch on the 7th and 9th. The Draconids get their name from the northern constellation of Draco the Dragon, from which they appear to radiate."
See more from Tree Hugger HERE:
"50 million tons of water vapor from Tonga's eruption could warm Earth for years"
"More than eight months after the underwater volcano near Tonga erupted on Jan. 14, scientists are still analyzing the impacts of the violent blast, and they're discovering that it could warm the planet. Recently, researchers calculated that the eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apa spewed a staggering 50 million tons (45 million metric tons) of water vapor into the atmosphere, in addition to enormous quantities of ash and volcanic gases. This massive vapor injection increased the amount of moisture in the global stratosphere by about 5%, and could trigger a cycle of stratospheric cooling and surface heating — and these effects may persist for months to come, according to a new study."
See more from Live Science HERE:
