The field for the NCAA men's hockey tournament will be announced at 5:30 p.m. Sunday on ESPNU, and conference tournament results from Friday and Saturday determined which 16 teams will keep playing. Where those teams will play will be decided by the tournament selection committee, but don't expect many surprises.
The Gophers, who lost 4-3 to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament championship game, will be the No. 1 overall seed, according to the PairWise Ratings, the computer formula that the NCAA uses to fill its tournament field. Minnesota secured that status Friday night when No. 2 Quinnipiac lost in the ECAC semifinals. The Bobcats kept the No. 2 spot, while Michigan moved ahead of Denver at No. 3. The defending national champion Pioneers will be the No. 4 overall seed.
Joining Michigan as automatic qualifiers for winning their conference tournaments are Canisius (Atlantic Hockey), Minnesota State Mankato (CCHA), Colgate (ECAC), Boston University (Hockey East) and St. Cloud State (NCHC). The remainder of the field will be filled by the highest-ranked teams in the PairWise.
When assigning teams to the four regionals — Fargo; Allentown, Pa.; Bridgeport, Conn.; and Manchester, N.H. — the selection committee will try to keep the bracket as balanced as possible by using No. 1 vs. No. 16, No. 2 vs. No. 15, No. 3 vs. No. 14, etc. There are exceptions. Intraconference first-round matchups are to be avoided, and the host of the regional, should it make the tournament field, must be placed in that regional. Also, the committee can use attendance or travel reasons to move teams around within their seeding band (Nos. 1-4, Nos. 5-8, Nos. 9-12 and Nos. 13-16).
Here's what the bracket could look like using only the balanced approach and before eliminating any host or intraconference issues.
Bracketology draft, before alterations
Fargo
1. Gophers vs. 16. Canisius
8. Penn State vs. 9. Ohio State
Bridgeport, Conn.
2. Quinnipiac vs. 15. Colgate
7. Harvard vs. 10. Michigan Tech
Allentown, Pa.
3. Michigan vs. 14. Merrimack
6. St. Cloud State vs. 11. Minnesota State Mankato
Manchester, N.H.
4. Denver vs. 13. Cornell
5. Boston University vs. 12. Western Michigan
There are two issues with this bracket:
* Penn State needs to be in Allentown as the host.
* The Quinnipiac vs. Colgate matchup of two ECAC teams must be broken up.
The Penn State issue can be fixed by swapping the Nittany Lions with St. Cloud State, moving the Huskies to Fargo.
The Quinnipiac-Colgate issue can be fixed by moving Merrimack to Bridgeport and Colgate to Allentown.
Here's a final projection of the bracket:
Final Bracketology projection
Fargo (Thursday, Saturday)
1. Gophers vs. 16. Canisius
6. St. Cloud State vs. 9. Ohio State
Bridgeport, Conn. (Friday, Sunday)
2. Quinnipiac vs. 14. Merrimack
7. Harvard vs. 10. Michigan Tech
Allentown, Pa. (Friday, Sunday)
3. Michigan vs. 15. Colgate
8. Penn State vs. 11. Minnesota State Mankato
Manchester, N.H. (Thursday, Saturday)
4. Denver vs. 13. Cornell
5. Boston University vs. 12. Western Michigan
I expect this is what the bracket will look like when the NCAA announces the field, but the committee always could pull some surprises.
