Paul Douglas On Weather
See more of the story

Watching the Tropics

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, there is a disturbance in the Atlantic Basin that has a high likelihood of tropical formation over the next few days. This storm is drifting west toward the Caribbean and could become named later this week. Stay tuned.

Tracking the Tropics

Here's the 5 day tropical outlook from NOAA's NHC. The area marked in red below is invest 94L, which has the high likelihood of tropical development as it drift towards the Caribbean. Note the NHC is watching 2 other waves in yellow that have low chances of formation over the next 5 days.

Tracking the Tropics

Here's a look at some of the Global & Hurricane spaghetti models for 94L. The consensus suggests that this wave will track across the southern Caribbean toward Central America over the next several days with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Tracking the Tropics

Here is the intensity forecast for 94L using some of the same models. Most members suggest a gradual increase in wind speeds as we head through the week with tropical storm status possible by midweek. If this becomes named, it would be Bonnie. There is also a chance that Bonnie could become the first hurricane of the season. Interestingly, some of the models suggest it reaching near the category 2 or 3 status later this week/weekend.

Spotty Severe Threats Tuesday & Wednesday

According to NOAA's SPC, there is an isolated risk of strong to severe storms across parts of the region PM Tuesday and PM Wednesday. Gusty winds and hail will be the primary concern with any of the stronger storms that develop in dark green.

Spotty Thunder Chances This Week

Here's the weather outlook from 7AM Tuesday to 7AM Saturday. Much of the week will be dry, but there will be a few thunderstorms chances this week, mainly Tuesday & Thursday.

Precipitation Potential Through Next Week

Here's the extended rainfall potential through the weekend, which shows fairly light precipitation amounts over the next few days. There will be a few t-showers Tuesday & Thursday and perhaps this weekend, but at this point, the rain chances don't look to be too impressive.

Dry June For Many - Heavy Rain For Others

Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average so far this June. Note that many locations are dealing with deficits with a few locations being nearly -1.00" to -2.00" or more below average through the first 26 days of the month. Minneapolis is nearly -3.00" below average, which is good enough for the 6th driest start to any June on record. However, last week saw very heavy rainfall in a few locations across Central MN, including St. Cloud, where they saw significant flooding. St. Cloud is now more than +1.75" above average, which is good enough for the 26th wettest on record.

Minnesota Drought Update

Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 10% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.

Tuesday Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook for Tuesday, which shows slightly unsettled weather in place with temps warming into the 70s and 80s. Highs across the international border will only warm into the upper 60s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average.

Twin Cities June Summary So Far

So far this June, the Twin Cities is running nearly +3.3F above average and good enough for the 12th warmest start to any June on record. We're also nearly -3.00" below average and the 6th driest start to any June on record.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows isolated shower and thunderstorm chances through the day. The best chance will be in the morning with another isolated threat later in the day. Temps will also be warmer with highs warming into the mid 80s

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temperatures starting in the mid 60s and warming in the mid 80s by the afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible in the morning with another isolated thunder risk in the afternoon. Winds will also be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 20mph to 25mph.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows slightly above average temps in place over the next few days with readings warming to near 90F. We'll be slightly cooler late with highs in the lower 80s.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows spotty t-shower chances Tuesday & Wednesday with warmer than average temps. We'll be a little cooler Friday and the weekend, but at this point, the weekend looks mostly dry.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps over the next few days will be at or slightly above average. We'll cool down a bit by the weekend and perhaps into the first week of July. However, the 2nd weekend of July could be warm if not hot. Stay tuned!

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across much of the Central US with cooler than average temps along the West Coast and in the Northeast.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place along the northern tier of the nation, Midwest and east of the Mississippi River. Dry weather will develop in the Southern US and the Western US.

Better Than Average 4th of July Shaping Up
By Paul Douglas

"Hey Paul, how hard can weather forecasting be? You just say what the weather models tell you to say!" I hear this every now and then. There would be no reliable weather forecasts beyond 24-36 hours without weather models.

The trick is knowing which model to believe, and when. Is there consensus, what are the trends over time? Some models work better in certain scenarios. The forecast is rarely black or white, but rather a puzzling shade of gray. Models help, but pattern recognition, experience and learning from previous mistakes enters into the equation.

As we heat up in the coming days thunderstorms will bubble up. A few storms may approach severe limits over Wisconsin (today) and northern Minnesota (Wednesday). Thursday puddles give way to a drier sky Friday, and right now Saturday looks pretty spectacular, with sunshine and low humidity. Another surge of heat may ignite T-storms and 80s Sunday and lake-worthy 80s spill into the 4th of July.

I see another extended run of 90s the second week of July.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Warm sun, few T-storms. Winds: W 8-13. High: 86.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Chance of t-storm early. Winds: NNW 5-10. Low: 62.

WEDNESDAY: Sticky sun, strong T-storms up north. Winds: S 10-20. High: 89.

THURSDAY: T-storms with locally heavy rain. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 72. High: 86.

FRIDAY: Sunny with lower humidity. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 64. High: 81.

SATURDAY: Sunny and very lake-worthy. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 82.

SUNDAY: More humid. Passing T-storm. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 66. High: 84.

MONDAY: Muggy with warm sunshine. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 86.

This Day in Weather History

June 28th

1876: The latest ice breakup in history for Duluth occurs on Lake Superior.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

June 28th

Average High: 82F (Record: 102F set in 1931)

Average Low: 64F (Record: 47F set in 1895 & 1924)

Record Rainfall: 2.33" set in 1920

Record Snowfall: None

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

June 28th

Sunrise: 5:29am

Sunset: 9:03pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 34 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 30 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 minutes

Moon Phase for June 28th at Midnight

0.2 Days Since New Moon

See more from HERE:

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Saturday shows well above average temps across the Southern US with record highs possible. Folks along the Front Range will be cooler than average with chances of showers and storms.

National Weather Outlook

Here's the national weather outlook through Wednesday, which doesn't look too active. There will be spotty t-storms along the Gulf Coast, the Desert Southwest and also across parts of the Midwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the Central and Southern US. There will also be areas of heavy rain in the Eastern US.

Climate Stories


"Most folks probably don't think of satellites as capable of sinking, but according to the European Space Agency they can and do. Space news site reported Thursday that ESA scientists had to raise the Swarm constellation satellites, which measure Earth's magnetic field, because they were sinking in chaotic space weather. "In the last five, six years, the satellites were sinking about two and a half kilometers [1.5 miles] a year," Swarm mission managerAnja Stromme, ESA's told "But since December last year, they have been virtually diving. The sink rate between December and April has been 20 kilometers [12 miles] per year." Although satellites always face a downward drag while in orbit, space weather has been making the sink worse, the ESA said. That's why the International Space Station makes frequent maneuvers to keep itself in orbit and out of the worst of the drag."

See more from Futurism HERE:


"A new study shows how artificial light has affected the natural seasonal processes of plants in urban regions of the United States. The study, published in PNAS Nexus, demonstrates how urbanization affects the natural world, resulting in noticeable changes for humans, says Yuyu Zhou, associate professor of geological and atmospheric sciences at Iowa State University and corresponding author of the study. For instance, the levels of artificial light during nighttime hours in urban settings alters the natural circadian rhythms of plants, lengthening pollen season for many plants in those regions. That means city dwellers who suffer from allergies may have to deal with sneezing and itchy eyes for longer portions of the year, Zhou says. "From this study, we found urban nighttime light has significant impact on urban plant phenology," Zhou says. "We found artificial light significantly advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology in the United States."

See more from Futurity HERE:

"What's in the future for weather forecasting?"

My name is Harry Enten, and I'm addicted to weather forecasting. In my teens, I went to Penn State Weather Camp, where I visited the National Weather Service and AccuWeather, and spent a week diving into the art and science of weather forecasting. Around that same time, I got featured in the New York Daily News about snow measurements. I didn't end up going into meteorology because I hate calculus. My addiction to weather forecasting and particularly snow remains, however. (There's a reason I'm not moving to Washington, D.C., as it averages less than 14 inches of snow per season.) However, I'm not a person who pays a lot of attention day to day to climate change. And as I learned in the latest episode of my podcast, "Margins of Error," having this disconnect between weather and climate change is surprisingly common.

See more from CNN HERE:

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX