Paul Douglas On Weather
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Another Mainly Sunny Day Friday

While it'll be a little breezy on Friday in the Twin Cities with southeast winds of 5-15 mph, it will otherwise be a nice end to the month of September. Mainly sunny skies are expected with highs climbing into the low 70s.

Another mainly sunny day is expected statewide on Friday, with highs from around average in southeastern Minnesota to 10F degrees above average out toward the border with the Dakotas. That means highs will be in the 60s and 70s across the state.


Quiet Weather To Begin October

As we head into the first weekend of October (yes, October begins Saturday!), it'll continue to be quiet across the region with mainly sunny skies. Highs this weekend into early next week will be around 70F. Those warmer temperatures look to continue into the middle of next week, but we do introduce a 20% chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday.


Driest September On Record

With no expected rainfall over the next couple of days, we should end September as the driest on record in the metro. Only 0.23" of rain has fallen at MSP, which will beat the record of 0.27" set back in 1882.


September MSP Temperatures

Meanwhile, it's been a warm September here in the Twin Cities, with an average temperature through the 28th of 66.4F. That makes it the 21st warmest September to date on record. We have observed one day with a high of 90F or greater (92F on the 20th), and ten days with a high of at least 80F.


Fall Color Update

The fall colors continue to spread across the state, with many areas of northern Minnesota (and a few in southern Minnesota) reporting 25-50% color. La Salle Lake Recreation Area up in northwestern Minnesota reported Thursday: "Yellow is illuminating the landscape on these crisp fall days. Ash trees are now in peak. Basswood and Paper Birch are not far behind. Maple species are now exhibiting more color and adding a glorious mix of orange and red into the fall color landscape while still holding on to some summery green leaves." You can keep your eye on this map over the next several weeks from the MN DNR by clicking here.

Here's a handy map of typical peak fall colors from the MN DNR. This ranges from mid/late September in far northern Minnesota to mid-October in southern parts of the state.


Ian's Damage and Dislocation Is Staggering
By Paul Douglas

The scale of devastation across southwest Florida is hard to comprehend. The power of moving water is staggering. Experts believe it will take years for greater Fort Myers to fully recover. One trusted source told me that Lee County (home to Fort Myers) has asked federal assistance to house up to 200,000 residents. We're talking Katrina-levels of dislocation and damage.

Ian is the 6th Category 4+ storm to hit the Gulf Coast in the last 6 years. Winds went from 75 mph Monday to 155 mph 24 hours later. The water is warmer now, and rapid intensification before landfall is an unfortunate trend. Today a reinvigorated Ian may cause flooding in Charleston, South Carolina, as a Category 1+ storm.

Expect more clouds in the coming days with a shot at 70F every day into Monday. Nice to be above average. An isolated shower is possible, but most of us won't get wet. Tuesday rain gives way to a slap of cooler air late next week, with highs in the 50s.<p>Remind me not to complain about cold fronts anytime soon.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake up 50. High 70. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny and mild. Wake up 51. High 70. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Patchy clouds, stray sprinkle? Wake up 52. High 68. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Clouds increase. Wake up 54. High 70. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Wettest day: few showers likely. Wake up 57. High 67. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Wake up 53. High 63. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Cool sunshine. Wake up 40. High 56. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 7-12 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 30th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 45 minutes, and 14 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight?: October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 7 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)


This Day in Weather History
September 30th

1995: Lightning starts a house on fire in Washington County.

1985: 4 inches of snow falls in Ely, with just a trace in the Twin Cities.


National Weather Forecast

There will be two main batches of precipitation across the lower 48 on Friday. The first will be across the eastern United States, connected to Ian as the system makes another U.S. landfall along the South Carolina coast. The second will be back in the Northern Plains and the Rockies where showers and storms will be possible, as well as some snow in higher elevations.

The heaviest rain through Saturday evening will be in the Mid-Atlantic, where several inches of rain could fall in association with Ian. Some snow accumulation could occur in the higher elevation of the Rockies.

After crossing over Florida Wednesday into early Thursday and being downgraded to a tropical storm in the process, Ian emerged back into the Atlantic and has regained hurricane strength. It is expected to make another landfall in South Carolina on Friday.


Ian weakens to tropical storm as it pummels Florida

More from Axios: "Hurricane Ian weakened to a tropical storm early Thursday, but the National Hurricane Center warned it's still battering the Florida Peninsula with strong winds, heavy rains and storm surge. Driving the news: Since making landfall as a high-end Category 4 storm Wednesday afternoon, Ian has knocked out power to nearly 2.5 million people as it inundated densely populated coastal communities known for attracting tourists and retirees — including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Naples and Sanibel Island. More than 2,000 flights into, within or out of the U.S. were canceled as of mid-morning Wednesday, according to flight tracking website FlightAware."

Nord Stream gas leaks may be biggest ever, with warning of 'large climate risk'

More from The Guardian: "Scientists fear methane erupting from the burst Nord Stream pipelines into the Baltic Sea could be one of the worst natural gas leaks ever and pose significant climate risks. Neither of the two breached Nord Stream pipelines, which run between Russia and Germany, was operational, but both contained natural gas. This mostly consists of methane – a greenhouse gas that is the biggest cause of climate heating after carbon dioxide. The extent of the leaks is still unclear but rough estimates by scientists, based on the volume of gas reportedly in one of the pipelines, vary between 100,000 and 350,000 tonnes of methane."

Tesla grid battery fire shows young industry's failures and successes

More from Canary Media: "The biggest grid battery complex in the U.S. is also the most fire-prone. The latest fire ignited in the wee hours of Tuesday, September 20 at utility PG&E's Elkhorn plant in the coastal town of Moss Landing, California. The Tesla-supplied battery plant sits at a utility substation right next door to the Moss Landing battery plant, owned by electric generating company Vistra, which suffered two fires of its own in the last year and had to shut down for months. Monterey County confirmed that last week's fire affected only one Tesla Megapack enclosure, and it was contained by the evening of the same day."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser