Paul Douglas On Weather
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Weekend Frost / Freeze Potential Up North

Frost and freeze concerns are in place this weekend as low temperatures both Saturday and Sunday morning could dip into the 20s and low 30s from the Dakotas to northern Minnesota.

Cool & Quiet Weekend Ahead

Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Monday, which shows fairly quiet weather in place across much of the state.

Precipitation Potential Through Next Week

Here's the extended precipitation outlook through next week. Precipitation amounts look fairly minimal across much of the state.

Precipitation Since January 1st

The last several weeks have been quite active across the Midwest and precipitation amounts have been fairly appreciative in some locations. Note that the Twin Cities has seen nearly 10.50" of liquid so far this year, which is the 24th wettest start to any year on record in the Twin Cities. St. Cloud is the 7th wettest start to any year on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st

Minnesota Drought Update

Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 3% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.

Status of Spring

"May 18, 2022 - Spring leaf out has now arrived at all but the highest elevation locations in the West. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. In the East, spring leaf out is patchy this year, arriving days to weeks late across much of the Southeast and upper Midwest, and arriving days to weeks early across the southern part of the Midwest, the Southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. In western states, spring leaf out is also patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Parts of Montana and South Dakota are 2-3 weeks early. Spring bloom is also spreading north, arriving days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. The mid-Atlantic is patchy, several days early in some locations and several days late in others. The southern part of the Midwest is several days to a week late."

See more from NPN HERE:

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temperature starting in the mid 40s in the morning and warming in mid 50s by the afternoon. There is a slight chance of a few showers in the afternoon, but most locations will stay dry. Northwesterly winds will gusty around 15mph to 20mph.

Weather Outlook on Saturday

Temps around the region on Saturday will warm into the 40s and 50s, which will be nearly -15F to -20F below average.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well below average through the weekend and into early next week. Highs this weekend will be nearly -10F to -15F below average, but temps will gradually warm through the week ahead.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows very chilly temps in place over the weekend. However, we'll gradually warm over the next few days with 70s likely by late week.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be quite chilly through the weekend and early next week. Readings will gradually warm into next week, but it appears we'll be cooler than average.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Meanwhile, folks in the Northwestern US will be cooler than average.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows a better chance of active weather across the northern tier of the nation. Drier weather will be in place across the central and southern US.

Annoyingly Cool But It Could Be Worse
By Paul Douglas

I'm not thrilled about turning on my furnace again, but there's no frost in the forecast (at least for the metro area this weekend) and I'm not in Colorado. Denver may pick up 3-6" of snow, with a foot or more for the mountains. Ouch. Although skiers are thrilled! Which proves my point: the weather can always be worse.

Hail damage was significant over the east metro Thursday, the second week in a row of severe weather outbreaks. Mercifully, tornadoes failed to spin up. This unusually cool blast will inoculate us from severe weather for a few days, but highs in the 50s in late May will be a source of endless irritation into Monday.

Big, sloppy, thundery storms stay south of Minnesota next week with a slow warming trend. Daytime highs in the 60s give way to 70F by Thursday. ECMWF (European model) guidance suggests 80s Memorial Day weekend, with a few stray storms, but no all-day washouts. Fingers crossed.

The drought is over, there's ample water in our lakes and fields. It's all good, right? Right?

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, brisk. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 52.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, isolated shower. Winds: NNW 5-10. Low: 43.

SUNDAY: A few sunny breaks, still chilly. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 55.

MONDAY: Patchy clouds, stray shower. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 40. High: 59.

TUESDAY: More clouds than sunshine. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 48. High: 63.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, a little better. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 47. High: 64.

THURSDAY: Blue sky, feels like spring again. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 48. High: 70.

FRIDAY: Plenty of sun, lake-worthy. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 50. High: 78.

This Day in Weather History

May 21st

1960: A downpour at New Prague dumps 10 inches of rain in a 48 hour period.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

May 21st

Average High: 71F (Record: 92F set in 1964)

Average Low: 52F (Record: 33F set in 1997)

Record Rainfall: 3.16" set in 1906

Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1931 & 1963

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

May 21st

Sunrise: 5:37am

Sunset: 8:41pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 3 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 00 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 17 Minutes

Moon Phase for May 21st at Midnight

0.5 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

See more from HERE:

National High Temps Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday shows temps well above average in the southern and eastern US. Meanwhile folks in the northern US will be well below average with snow along the Front Range.

National Weather Outlook

Here's the national weather outlook through early next week. Unsettled weather will be in place across the central and eastern US with a few strong storms possible.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the central and southern US.

Climate Stories

"Coral Reefs Are Struggling, but There Is Some Good News"

"The United Nations recently released a sweeping report on the health of the planet's coral. Healthy reef cover—where squishy polyps and colorful algae coat the white skeletons of hard coral—has dropped 14 percent in the past decade. Coastal development, ocean plastic pollution and overfishing all take their toll, allowing destructive algae to proliferate. But warming oceans, which bleach coral, are the biggest threat to reefs worldwide. The all too familiar story has a few bright spots, however. Coral rebounded after major bleaching events in 1998 and 2005, showing recovery is possible. And the most biodiverse coral in the world—the so-called Coral Triangle in the western Pacific Ocean—is holding its ground."

See more from Scientific American HERE:

"Bad news for the 2022 hurricane season: The Loop Current, a fueler of monster storms, is looking a lot like it did in 2005, the year of Katrina"

"The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and the Gulf of Mexico is already warmer than average. Even more worrying is a current of warm tropical water that is looping unusually far into the Gulf for this time of year, with the power to turn tropical storms into monster hurricanes. It's called the Loop Current, and it's the 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks. When the Loop Current reaches this far north this early in the hurricane season – especially during what's forecast to be a busy season – it can spell disaster for folks along the Northern Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida. If you look at temperature maps of the Gulf of Mexico, you can easily spot the Loop Current. It curls up through the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico, and then swings back out through the Florida Strait south of Florida as the Florida Current, where it becomes the main contributor to the Gulf Stream."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

"Infrared Breakthrough Could Lead to Solar Power at Night"

"The sun's enormous energy may soon be harnessed in the dark of night following a significant advance in thermal capture technology. Solar radiation heats the earth's crust significantly during daylight hours, but that energy is lost into the coldness of space when the sun goes down. Now, researchers within the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering at UNSW Sydney have successfully tested a device capable of converting infrared heat into electrical power. The team, including members of the ARC Centre of Excellence in Exciton Science, used a power-generation device called a 'thermo-radiative diode', which is similar to the technology in night-vision goggles."

See more from Extinction Science HERE:

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