Paul Douglas On Weather
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Driest September on Record at MSP

Well this kind of snuck up on us, but did you realize that MSP only had a 0.25" of rain for the entire month of September? This will rank as the driest September in recorded history!

Dry September Around the Region

Despite a few pockets of heavy rain here and there, September really was a dry month for many across the Midwest. All of the climate sites in Minnesota were below average with the biggest deficit in the Twin Cities, which ranked as the driest September on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

Here's the precipitation departure from average across the Midwest since January 1st. Note that there are a few communities that are dealing with surpluses, but for the most part, folks from the Twin Cities to Sioux Falls, SD are running below average. Minneapolis is nearly -7.70" below average, which is good enough for the 23rd driest start to any year in recorded history.

Severe Drought Continues in the Metro

According to the US Drought Monitor (updated September 27th), severe drought continues in the Twin Cities. Areas of moderate to severe drought stretch from the Twin Cities to the MN River Valley, where precipitation amounts are running several inches below average since January 1st.

Mostly Dry Extended Forecast

Here's the precipitation outlook through over the next several days, which shows very little rainfall across the region.

Little Rain Chance Into Early October

Here's the weather outlook through the middle part of next week, which shows isolated rain chances possible, but it doesn't appear that any appreciative amounts will be possible. There is more substantial cooldown that will move through midweek with much cooler air in place during the 2nd half of the week.

"41 Surreal Pictures And Videos Showing The Unreal Devastation Left Behind By Hurricane Ian"

Hurricane Ian was one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the Florida coast. In terms of max winds, this will tie with Charlie, but Matthew, Andrew and the Labor Day Hurricane were stronger. Many communities on the west coast of Florida and especially around Fort Myers saw catastrophic damage. The images coming out of Florida are astonishing and heart-breaking. Buzzfeed compiled some unreal images HERE:

Ian Makes Another Landfall on Friday

Here's a look at Hurricane Ian from PM Friday as it made a 2nd U.S. landfall near Georgetown, SC as a category 1 storm with 85mph winds. This was the first South Carolina landfalling hurricane since Matthew in 2016. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be possible over the weekend through the Mid-Atlantic States, where some 2" to 5" rainfall tallies can't be ruled out.

Fall Color Update

Thanks to dwindling daylight and chilly overnight lows, the fall color progress is really starting to come around. It won't be long now and those fall colors will be quite prevalent across the state. Enjoy!

Average Fall Color

The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!

Average First Frost For MSP

Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.

First Measurable Snow at MSP

Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.

Weather Outlook on Saturday

Temperature on Saturday will be nearly +5F above average for the first day of October. There could be a few isolated showers here and there, but most will stay dry.

Weather Outlook Saturday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday shows a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures warming to near 70F, which will be above average for early October. There could be a few isolated showers here and there, but most will stay dry.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temps starting in the mid 50s in the morning and warming to near 70F by the afternoon. Skies will generally be dry with a mix of clouds and sun. East to southeasterly winds will be around 10mph-15mph.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows temps warming into the 60s and 70s over the next several days, which will be above average for early October.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows milder weather in place through the first half of the week. There will be a bigger cool front that blows through midweek, which will drop temps to below average temps once again later in the week. In fact, daytime highs may only warm into the 50s with frosty overnight lows.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & NBM models, the extended temperature outlook shows milder temps in place through midweek. Highs in the 70s for early October is actually above average, so enjoy. A bigger cooldown is expected late week with highs only warming into the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the Western US with cooler than average readings in the eastern & northeastern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place across the Midwest and Eastern US.

Aiming For Hurricane-Resilience in SW Florida
By Paul Douglas

The area so many Minnesotans favor for sunny, sandy getaways looks like a war zone. Residents have been through a trauma. Here is a prediction I'll get right: Southwest Florida will be back.

I hope the area builds back stronger, in every sense of the word. In a time of rising seas and increasingly super-sized hurricanes, there's an opportunity to create hurricane-resilience: stronger building codes, elevated structures and more natural green-spaces to buffer future storm surges. Even retreating from the water where it makes sense. That won't be easy, but it may become necessary.

A stalled warm frontal boundary will fire off more clouds and a spattering of light showers and sprinkles this weekend. We'll take any rain, after the driest September on record. If the sun stays out for a few hours we may hit 70F. Not a bad way to kick off October.

A brief slap of cooler air arrives late next week, but models show a milder than average trend into much of autumn. Peak fall color has been delayed by 1-2 weeks.

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Some sun, few showers. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 69.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: E 5. Low: 52.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, lukewarm. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 70.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 54. High: 73.

TUESDAY: Damp with a few showers. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: 66.

WEDNESDAY: Intervals of sunshine. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 57. High: 68.

THURSDAY: Chilly breeze, feels like October. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 43. High: 53.

FRIDAY: A little frost? Cool blue sky. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 35. High: 51.

This Day in Weather History

October 1st

1999: One of the earliest significant snowfalls in Minnesota history falls in a narrow track across southern Minnesota. Reported snowfall totals include 4.0 inches in Montgomery (Le Sueur County) and Northfield (Rice County), 3.8 inches in Springfield (Brown County), 3.0 inches in Vesta (Redwood county), and 2.8 inches in Mankato (Blue Earth County).

1989: High temperatures across central and southern Minnesota reach the 80's. Later in the day, a cold front would come through and drop the mercury to the 40's.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

October 1st

Average High: 66F (Record: 87F set in 1897)

Average Low: 47F (Record: 24F set in 1974)

Record Rainfall: 1.29" set in 2009

Record Snowfall: None

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

October 1st

Sunrise: 7:11am

Sunset: 6:53pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 42 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 6 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 58 minutes

Moon Phase for October 1st at Midnight

0.7 Days Before First Quarter Moon

National High Temps Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday shows well below average temperatures in place in the Eastern US, where Ian will be present. It'll be pretty close to average for early October in the Central US and well above average in the Pacific Northwest.

National Weather Outlook Saturday

The remnants of Ian will linger across the Mid-Atlantic States with areas of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Localized flooding can't be ruled out either. Meanwhile, a stagnant area of precipitation will be found along the Front Range with high elevation snow possible.

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Sunday shows Ian moving north into the Mid-Atlantic States and stalling for a couple of days with breezy winds and locally heavy rainfall. Lingering precipitation will be found across the Front Range and Intermountain-West.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, heavy rainfall will be found in the Mid-Atlantic States with localized flooding possible. There will also be areas of decent precipitation through the Intermountain-West and along the Front Range.

Climate Stories

"Shifting ocean currents are pushing more and more heat into the Southern Hemisphere's cooler waters"

"The oceans absorb more than 90% of all extra heat trapped by the emissions we've produced by burning fossil fuels. This heat is enormous. It's as if we exploded an atom bomb underwater, every second of every day. The ocean isn't warming at the same rate everywhere. We know the heat is concentrated in the fast, narrow currents that flow along the east coasts of the world's continents and funnel warm water from the tropics down towards the poles. In the Southern Hemisphere, these currents – known as the western boundary currents – are warming faster than the global average at their southern limits, creating ocean warming hotspots."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

"Study identifies hundreds of hospitals on Atlantic and Gulf Coasts at risk of flooding from hurricanes"

"The first study to systematically investigate flooding risk to hospitals on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts from Category 1-4 storms finds that even relatively weak storms pose a serious flood risk to hospitals along the coast. Sea level rise expected in this century due to the effects of climate change increases the odds of hospital flooding by 22% according to a study, which was published today in GeoHealth by the Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston University School of Medicine Department of Family Medicine, and PSE Healthy Energy."

See more from HERE:

"Discovery of 'fingerprint' confirms alarming predictions of Greenland ice sheet melt"

"Scientists now have unambiguous proof that a phenomenon critical to predicting the impact of climate change exists. Researchers announced Thursday that they had detected the sea level "fingerprint" of the Greenland ice sheet melt, pinpointing the unique pattern of sea level change linked to the melting ice. It's the first time such a fingerprint has been definitively measured. While scientists agreed such fingerprints theoretically exist, the dynamic nature of the ocean had made it difficult to identify them confidently — until now."

See more from NBC News HERE:

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