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8:15 AM MONDAY MORNING SNOW UPDATE
The band of heavy snow in the forecast has been tracking closer and closer to the Twin Cities this morning, and heavier snowfall totals are now expected just south and west of the 494-694 corridor as we head through the day. This band is expected to stall out near the Mississippi River/I-94 later this morning, meaning snow will linger through the day across the metro.
Winter Storm Warnings have crept closer to the Twin Cities as that heavy snow band has continued to move quicker than originally expected, and Hennepin County is under a Winter Weather Advisory. A band of 6"+ is possible from near Hutchinson southeastward into northeastern Iowa. The heaviest snow totals in the metro will be in southern and western areas, where we could see totals approach 6". The lightest snow across the metro will be in northeastern areas, where we may be lucky to see 2" of snow.
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Previous Post From 6 PM Sunday:
Accumulating Snow Sunday Night Into Monday
As I said on Twitter Saturday, while we have seen nice and warm weather this weekend, Mother Nature is now going to pull her best Lee Corso "Not so fast, my friend" impression heading into the start of the work week as a winter storm aims for southern Minnesota. This is part of the same system that has been greatly impacting the Front Range with multiple feet of snow and blizzard conditions. Luckily, we aren't going to see the extreme impacts, but some areas of southwestern Minnesota could see at least a half a foot and even up to 9" or 10". Snow looks to start moving into southwestern Minnesota toward Midnight Sunday Night, moving up to the metro during the mid to late hours of the morning. That snow then lingers through the evening commute. (Loop: 6 PM Sunday evening through 6 AM Tuesday)
The heaviest totals will be down in far southwestern Minnesota, where up to 9" (or so) of snow is possible. Closer to the metro, around 1-3" of snow will be possible, with the heaviest on the south side.
With heavy snow in the forecast for portions of southwestern and south-central Minnesota - particularly along and south of the Minnesota River - Winter Storm Warnings have been issued including Mankato, Marshall, Worthington, and Albert Lea. A layer of Winter Weather Advisories blanket the north side of the snow where the odds of seeing at least 3" of snow are highest.
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Monday Weather Outlook
So we will be tracking snow for the Ides of March in the Twin Cities, beginning in the mid to late afternoon hours and lasting through the rest of the day. The heaviest will probably be within the first few hours of the snow after it starts. Temperatures will slowly climb from the upper 20s in the morning toward the mid-30s in the afternoon hours.
As southern Minnesota deals with snow on Monday, it's going to be downright pleasant as you head into northern Minnesota! Up north it'll be in the 40s with sunny skies while southern Minnesota remains in the 30s for highs.
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A Warm March So Far
It has been a warm start to March in the Twin Cities as we approach the halfway mark of the month. Through the 13th, the average temperature has been over 10F degrees above average, good enough for the fifth warmest start to March on record. With that warmer weather has come very little snow. While those fortunes change a little on Monday, I don't think we'll see enough in the Cities to bring us back to average.
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Extended Temperature Outlook
Nor will whatever snow accumulates last too long across the region, as highs look to climb right back into the 40s as we head into Tuesday and the middle of the week. Highs will once again approach 50F by the end of the week.
And looking out toward the rest of the month, highs look like they could stay mainly above average with maybe a blip or two of "cooler" air.
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Satellite From Saturday
I wanted to pull up this image from Saturday, as with the mainly clear skies you could easily see the snow that is still on the ground across portions of central and northern Minnesota as well as the ice still on the lakes across the region. As of Sunday morning, Duluth had 5" of snow on the ground. It's always fun to see what you can see from satellite!
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A Test Within a Test Within a Test
By Paul Douglas
I believe our time on this spinning rock is not a coincidence. We are here for a reason. Life is both a gift - and a test. What will we do with what we have? How do we treat others, and make things better? The last 12 months have been a test within a test; the virus revealing better angels and lingering darkness.
Things are finally getting better because no trial lasts forever. The extended outlook calls for hope and optimism.
Speaking of tests, welcome to a Minnesota March. The same storm that buried Denver will drop a half foot or more of snow on far southern Minnesota today. The MSP metro will teeter on the northern edge of the snow shield - 2 to 4 inches of slush may fall. But a high March sun angle means that whatever does fall will be mostly-gone by midweek.
In spite of today's cameo appearance by Old Man Winter the maps look fairly springy into late March. A late week storm will track south of Minnesota and 60F may return by Sunday, with a cold rain in 7-9 days. Winter is on the run.
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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast
MONDAY: 2-4" snow, more south/west. Wake up 29. High 33. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind E 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, slush starts to melt. Wake up 28. High 38. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: More sunshine, feeling springier. Wake up 25. High 45. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Wake up 29. High 53. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.
FRIDAY: Blue sky, few complaints. Wake up 28. High 52. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Sunny, breezy and pleasant. Wake up 30. High 54. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY: Glimmers of sun, hints of April. Wake up 40. High 60. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 10-20 mph.
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This Day in Weather History
March 15th
1941: The 'Ides of March Blizzard' occurs. Winds reached hurricane force at Twin Cities. 32 people died.
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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
March 15th
Average High: 41F (Record: 70F set in 2015)
Average Low: 24F (Record: -7F set in 1897)
Average Precipitation: 0.06" (Record: 0.85" set in 2016)
Average Snowfall: 0.3" (Record: 5.0" in 1899)
Record Snow Depth: 24" in 1962
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
March 15th
Sunrise: 7:24 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 54 minutes and 36 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~3 minutes and 9 seconds
*When Do We Climb To 12 Hours Of Daylight? March 17th (12 hours, 0 minutes, and 55 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 7 AM?: March 28th (7:00 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 7:30 PM?: March 24th (7:31 PM)
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National Weather Forecast
The system responsible for the heavy snow and blizzard conditions out toward the Front Range this weekend will continue to work east on Monday, bringing rain, snow, and ice chances from the Upper Midwest to around D.C. On the warm side of the system, showers and storms will be possible from Kansas to the Southeast. Another system out west will bring widespread chances of rain and snow.
A few areas of heavy rain will be possible across the nation heading through the middle of the week. One will be across the central United States on the warm side of the system hitting the region, with the potential of 1-3" of rain. 1-3" of rain will also be possible in the Deep South and in portions of southwestern Oregon and northwestern California. The heaviest snow will have fallen in portions of the Front Range where snow from the weekend into early in the week will be measured in feet. This system will also produce an area of 6"+ of snow in southeastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa. A foot or two of snow will be possible in the Sierra.
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A Single Chemical Plant in Louisville Emits a Super-Pollutant That Does More Climate Damage Than Every Car in the City
More from Inside Climate News: "A chemical plant here that makes a raw material for everything from Teflon to lubricants used on the International Space Station also appears to do more damage to the climate than all of this city's passenger vehicles. The Chemours Louisville Works along the banks of the Ohio river is the nation's largest emitter of a climate super-pollutant known as hydrofluorocarbon-23 (HFC-23). As a greenhouse gas, the chemical is 12,400 times more potent than carbon dioxide, the primary chemical compound responsible for warming the planet, and could be eliminated with low cost, existing technology."
Farm-level study shows rising temperatures hurt rice yields
More from Science Daily: "A study of the relationship between temperature and yields of various rice varieties, based on 50 years of weather and rice-yield data from farms in the Philippines, suggests that warming temperatures negatively affect rice yields. Recent varieties of rice, bred for environmental stresses like heat, showed better yields than both traditional rice varieties and modern varieties of rice that were not specifically bred to withstand warmer temperatures. But the study found that warming adversely affected crop yields even for those varieties best suited to the heat. Overall, the advantage of varieties bred to withstand increased heat was too small to be statistically significant."
'Kern runs on oil': as California confronts climate crisis, one county is ready to drill
More from The Guardian: "Kern county, which sprawls more than 8,000 square miles, connecting the Sierra Nevada slopes and the Mojave Desert to the counties on the Central Coast, is the oil capital of California. The county produces about 70% of the state's oil and more than 90% of its natural gas – and it has plans to ramp up production. This week the county approved an ordinance that would allow thousands of new wells to be drilled over the next 15 years. The decision comes despite deep opposition from local farmers and environmental groups, and it puts the county directly at odds with a state that has branded itself as a trailblazer on climate and set ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."
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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
- D.J. Kayser