Paul Douglas On Weather
See more of the story

Thanksgiving Day Outlook For The Twin Cities

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Thanksgiving Day Thursday will be quite a bit colder than it has been as of late with temps warming to near the freezing mark. North to northwest winds around 10mph to 15mph will make it feel more like the 20s all day.

Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Thanksgiving Day

Here's a look at the hourly feels like temps for Minneapolis on Thanksgiving Day Thursday, which shows readings in the 20s much of the day. It will definitely be chillier than it has been as of late.

Thanksgiving Day Weather Outlook

Weather conditions around the region for Thanksgiving Day Thursday will be rather quiet with chilly temps only warming into the 20s and 30s, which will be below average by nearly -5F to -10F for this time of the year. Skies will generally be sunny to partly cloudy, so travel conditions should be good.

Weather Outlook This Week

The weather outlook across the region through the week and weekend ahead shows mostly quiet conditions across the Midwest after Tuesday. It will be mostly dry over that stretch with temperatures staying mild through Wednesday. It gets quite a bit colder by Thursday and through the end of the month.

Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook through early next week shows very little precipitation across the state. There could be a little more across the northern part of the state with up to a couple of tenths of an inch of precipitation.

Warmer & Drier Start to November So Far

Despite being chillier than average earlier this month, temperatures have been quite a bit warmer than average as of late. That being said, the average temperature in the Twin Cities is nearly +6.1F above average, which is tied for the 13th warmest start to any November on record. Precipitation running more than -1.04" below average, which is tied for the 6th driest start to any November on record. There hasn't been any snowfall registered at the airport, which is nearly -3.5" below average.

Twin Cities Average Snowfall

The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 suggests that we typically see around 5.5" of snow during the month of November. The snowiest month tends to be in December with more than a foot falling. The 2nd snowiest month tends to be January with nearly 11" falling in the metro.

Drought Update

Recent heavy rains since late September have helped the drought situation quite a bit across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 34% nearly 3 months ago.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, November 21st will be close to average for this time of the year with. We'll also have a little more sunshine through the day with NNW winds around 15mph, which will make it feel more like the 30s all day.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temperatures in the Twin Cities will warm from the mid 30s in the morning to the upper 30s to near 40F around midday under partly to mostly sunny skies. Northwest winds will be gusty, especially in the afternoon with gusts approaching 20mph to 30mph.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday will be clear to average for this time of the year with readings in the 30s and low 40s. Skies will be dry with more sunshine later in the afternoon.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temperatures on Tuesday, but we'll be nearly +10F above average on Wednesday with highs approaching 50F. We'll cool down quite bit by Thanksgiving Day with readings warming to near the freezing mark, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows mostly quiet dry through the weekend and early next week with temps chilling down into the lower 30s, which will be below average for this time of the year.

The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will be cooler than it has been, especially after Wednesday. Highs may only warm into the 30s for an extended period through the end of the month.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Winding Down

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. November is typically a very quiet month, but there can still be storms. In fact, last year, Hurricane Nicole made landfall along the east coast of Florida.

Atlantic Outlook

According to NOAA's NHC, there are a couple of waves in the Atlantic Basin that have the potential of tropical development. The one in the Caribbean has a low probability of formation, while the one in the Central Atlantic has a medium chance of formation.

Weather Outlook

A large storm system will continue to slide east through midweek with areas of heavy rain and snow. Meanwhile, weather conditions in the Central US will be quieter with a little snow developing across the Rockies and Central Plains later this week into the weekend ahead. It'll get quite a bit cooler as we approach the end of the week as well.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures developing from near the Four Corners Region across the Southern US and into the Eastern US. Meanwhile, it'll be warmer than average across the West Coast and into parts of the Midwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather in place across parts of the Southern and Southeastern US. Meanwhile, it looks drier from the West Coast to the Midwest and Great Lakes.

A Chilly, Drama-Free Thanksgiving Holiday
By Paul Douglas

42 years ago the town was still buzzing about the foot of snow that had deflated the newly-constructed Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis. That's what CAN happen in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.

I'm thankful I won't be doing an awkward slow-dance with my (electric) snow blower this Thanksgiving. Chilly? Yes. But flake-free.

A little light rain dribbles out of a stale cloud deck this morning, but skies dry out after lunch. Wednesday looks nice with sunshine and upper 40s. A colder wind whips up Thanksgiving Day, but the sun should be shining. With two fistfuls of food I hope to not even notice what the weather is doing Thursday. The outlook is chilly, but hardly arctic, with 30s into next week. Weather models hint at a period of light snow or flurries Sunday, and I won't be shocked to see a dusting or coating. We can handle that. Getting home shouldn't be a white-knuckle affair

No big snowstorms are brewing. You'll be staring out at a green lawn until further notice.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: AM showers, drier PM. Winds: NW 15-25. High 42.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and colder. Winds: NW 5-15 Turning SW. Low: 29.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, breezy and fairly nice. Winds: SW 10-20. High: 48.

THURSDAY: Blue sky with a chilly breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High 33.

FRIDAY: Sunny and brisk. Feels like November. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 19. High 32.

SATURDAY: Clouds increase, still dry. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 22. High 35.

SUNDAY: Dusting or coating of flakes? Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 27. High 34.

MONDAY: Sunshine returns. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 24. High: 33.

This Day in Weather History

November 21st

2001: Record highs are set in west and north central Minnesota, ranging from the upper fifties to lower sixties. Redwood Falls set their high with 68 degrees Fahrenheit and Little Falls had a high of 65 degrees.

1980: On this date, around 28 thousand Canadian geese spent their nights on Silver Lake in Rochester.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 21st

Average High: 39F (Record: 67F set in 1990)

Average Low: 25F (Record: -11F set in 1880)

Record Rainfall: 0.54" set in 1994

Record Snowfall: 4.8" set in 1989

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 21st

Sunrise: 7:18am

Sunset: 4:39pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 21 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 22 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 26 Minutes

Moon Phase for November 21st at Midnight

1.8 Days Since First Quarter Moon

National High Temps on Tuesday

The weather outlook across the Central US shows cooler temps across the Northeast and also the Southern US, where areas of rain will be found. Meanwhile, folks in the Southwestern US will be dry and mild with temperatures running nearly +10F above average.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The National Weather Outlook on Tuesday shows areas heavy rain and thunder across the Southeastern US. Some of the storms could be strong to severe. Areas of rain and snow, mixed with ice will be possible across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday.

National Weather Outlook

The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows very active weather in place across the Eastern US. Some of the storms could be strong to severe in the Southeast with locally heavy rainfall. There could be snow and ice across parts of the Northeast, which could cause some travel headaches just before Thanksgiving. More rain and snow will develop across the Pacific Northwest as we approach the end of the week.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavier rain across the Eastern US, where several inches can't be ruled out. Some of the precipitation across the Rockies will be in the form of snow later this week as well.

Extended Snowfall Outlook

According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow will be found across the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be some decent snowfall along the international border and just north into Canada.

Climate Stories

What the U.S.-China Agreement Means for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

"The two nations announced limited steps to address climate change. But even a modest agreement could have far-reaching effects. The climate deal announced by China and the United States on Tuesday shows that the world's two largest emitters agree on the need for more renewables. But whether they can meet their climate targets will depend in large part on how they plan to address fossil fuels. The joint statement — emerging from four days of talks between U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua — signals that the two sides are reengaging ahead of global climate talks in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, this month, despite continued tensions in their bilateral relationship."

See more from Scientific American HERE:

This Fall Is Full of Acorns—Thanks to a 'Mast' Year

"Trees can outsmart animals such as squirrels and birds by synchronizing their seed production. If you have oak trees in your neighborhood, perhaps you've noticed that some years the ground is carpeted with their acorns, and some years there are hardly any. Biologists call this pattern, in which all the oak trees for miles around make either lots of acorns or almost none, "masting." Naturalists have declared this fall a mast year for many trees: Not just oaks, but walnuts, beeches and more are all making tons of nuts all at the same time. Many other types of trees, from familiar North American species such as pines and hickories to the massive dipterocarps of Southeast Asian rainforests, show similar synchronization in seed production. But why and how do trees do it?"

See more from Scientific American HERE:

Last month was by far the world's hottest October on record

"October 2023 was the hottest October on record globally in analyses dating back to 1850, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information on November 15. NOAA, NASA, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service all rated October 2023 as the warmest October on record, crushing the previous October record by a huge margin. According to NOAA, October global temperatures spiked to a remarkable 1.34 degrees Celsius (2.41°F) above the 20th-century average. Using NASA data, October 2023 was 1.57 degrees Celsius above the temperature of the 1880-1899 period, which is commonly called "preindustrial" (the difference between the 1951-1980 baseline reported on the NASA website and the 1880-1899 period is 0.226°C). This is the fourth-highest departure from average in the NASA database, behind September 2023 (1.70°C), February 2016 (1.59°C), and March 2016 (1.58°C)."

See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX