Free-agent pitchers and analytics
Advanced statistics can help reveal a starting pitcher's true value. Fielding independent pitching (FIP), for instance, attempts to remove the quality of the defense behind the pitcher from the equation. Here are nine of the top free-agent starters, ranked by their 2017 FIP number, with their estimated market value from Spottrac.com and their FanGraphs wins above replacement number:
Yu Darvish
ERA:3.86
FIP: 3.83
WAR: 3.5
Est. Market Value: $22.7 million
• Darvish has been consistently good since entering MLB in 2012, but at 31, teams are hesitant to dole out a long-term deal for him.
Jake Arrieta
ERA:3.53
FIP: 4.16
WAR: 2.4
Est. Market Value: $26.6 million
• Arrieta, 31, hasn't recaptured the magic from his 2015 NL Cy Young year. His ERA was 0.63 better than his FIP in 2017, meaning he benefited from a good Cubs defense, but he's still a potential top-flight starter.
Alex Cobb
ERA: 3.66
FIP: 4.16
WAR: 2.4
Est. Market Value: $18.3 million
• Like Arrieta, Cobb benefited from a good defense (his ERA was half a run lower than his FIP). But the 30-year-old showed he could still be an effective pitcher in the wake of a 2015 Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery.
Jaime Garcia
ERA: 4.41
FIP: 4.25
WAR: 2.1
Est. Market Value: $10.3 million
• The Twins acquired the 31-year-old lefthander from Atlanta in July, then flipped him to the Yankees after only one start. But he posted solid numbers overall.
Jason Vargas
ERA: 4.16
FIP: 4.67
WAR: 1.6
Est. Market Value: $9.6 million
• Another Tommy John vet, Vargas, 34, returned to throw nearly 180 innings in 2017 after missing all of 2016. The 18-game winner might be a relatively cheap target for the back end of a rotation.
Lance Lynn
ERA: 3.43
FIP: 4.82
WAR: 1.4
Est. Market Value: $17 million
• Lynn, 30, started 33 games last season after having Tommy John surgery in 2016, and the difference between his FIP and ERA is a large one (1.39), but Lynn is still a candidate to receive a big payday thanks to a strong run from 2012 to '15.
Matt Garza
ERA: 4.94
FIP: 4.91
WAR: 1.0
Est. Market Value: N/A
• At 34, the former Twins first-round draft pick's best days are behind him. He started fine before a disastrous finish in 2017 (32 earned runs allowed in his last six starts).
Jeremy Hellickson
ERA: 5.43
FIP: 5.77
WAR: 0.2
Est. Market Value: $16.3 million
• Hellickson, 30, couldn't recapture the magic from a great 2016 (3.98 FIP, 3.3 WAR) and struggled with the Phillies, who traded him to the Orioles last season.
Chris Tillman
ERA: 7.84
FIP: 6.93
WAR: -1.0
Est. Market Value: $9.4 million
• Tillman was very good from 2012 to '16, averaging 1.9 WAR in those five seasons, but early-season shoulder problems affected his 2017. It's a risk to think that Tillman, 29, can regain his previous form.
