The last time the Vikings selected an offensive lineman in the first three rounds of the NFL draft, our current U.S. president was firing B-list celebs such as George Takei and Debbie Gibson on television, iPhones had just recently started talking back to us and Adrian Peterson was still furiously rehabbing his blown-out left knee.
It has been five years since the Vikings picked left tackle Matt Kalil fourth overall in 2012. Since then, as they instead drafted late-round linemen and hoped that they could develop a couple of them into another Matt Birk or John Sullivan, the Vikings have watched their offensive line decay into one of the league's worst units.
So, naturally, General Manager Rick Spielman often gets asked, "Why haven't you drafted more offensive linemen in the earlier rounds?"
Whether the Vikings under his watch were unwilling or simply unable to select more blue-chippers up front, Spielman recently admitted he reconsidered his line-building philosophy after their once-promising 2016 season was doomed by bad blocking.
The Vikings, who enter this weekend's NFL draft with a short-term need at guard and a long-term one at tackle, are not alone in searching for a better way to build a line. Many critics argue that line play across the NFL has declined.
As spread offenses have overtaken the high school and college ranks and practice time in the NFL has shrunk, drafting and developing linemen has become even more difficult for NFL teams, especially ones that have opted not to use premium picks on the offensive line.
Spielman said the Vikings did a study on "everything we've done from the offensive line" and calculated the success rate for linemen based on round. The main takeaway seems pretty obvious: "Most of the guys that become successful are going to get drafted early in the draft."
Failure factors mount
Spielman could rattle off all the athletic young defenders he picked for coach Mike Zimmer or name some of the big, impact blockers who got snatched up before the Vikings were on the clock. He could try to explain why projecting which offensive linemen will pan out in the pros has become more of a crapshoot or grumble about how his coaching staff has fewer hours to try to develop them.
Whatever the reasons, a lack of early-round prospects up front caught up with the Vikings the past two seasons. It forced them to splurge in free agency on solid but unspectacular linemen in Alex Boone, Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers and gamble on two injury-prone tackles, Andre Smith and Jake Long, in 2016.
The Vikings have drafted only one Pro Bowl lineman this decade — Kalil, the lone early-round lineman they have drafted since Phil Loadholt back in 2007. Meanwhile, the Vikings since 2011 have selected nine offensive linemen on the final day of the draft, tied with San Francisco for the most in the NFL over the span.
Interior linemen Sullivan and Brandon Fusco were late-round gems who were solid Vikings starters for a while. But where are Jeff Baca, Travis Bond, David Yankey, Demarcus Love and Tyrus Thompson today?
Dating to 2000, three out of every five linemen drafted in the fourth round or later started fewer than a dozen games during their careers. Meanwhile, 78 percent of the Pro Bowl selections were earned by linemen drafted in the first three rounds, based on Star Tribune research using Pro Football Reference's NFL draft database.
The Dallas Cowboys, who Zimmer last season said have the best offensive line in recent memory, drafted three All-Pro linemen with first-rounders in recent years.
The consensus among draftniks is that this is a poor class of linemen, especially if you need a tackle. And the Vikings won't be on the clock until No. 48 overall.
ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay on a conference call last week mentioned Indiana's Dan Feeney, Temple's Dion Dawkins, Pittsburgh's Dorian Johnson and San Diego State's Nico Siragusa as linemen who could be of interest to them on Day 2, when they have one selection in the second round and a pair of picks in the third.
Of course, while the odds of success are significantly better for an early-round pick spent on a lineman, they are still far from a sure bet.
Among recent top picks, Luke Joeckel, Gabe Carimi, Derek Sherrod, James Carpenter and D.J. Fluker were all first-round flops. Greg Robinson is on the verge of joining them. And Kalil regressed, in part because of injuries, after showing promise early but still somehow scored a $55 million contract from the Carolina Panthers last month.
The college effect
NFL talent evaluators have blamed college offenses that forget about huddles and spread out defenses with three or four or five receivers as a major reason why it has become tougher to determine which offensive line prospects can cut it in the pros.
These schemes put their linemen in two-point stances and often ask them to just get in the way for a second or two, especially when it comes to their rapid-fire passing attacks. The linemen's assignments are simpler, and physicality is not always a required attribute.
The NFL can use as an excuse the trickle-down effect these spread offenses have had on offensive line play. But it's not the job of NCAA coaches to be the NFL's minor league feeder system, said Gophers offensive line coach Ed Warinner. Those guys are paid to win games, too.
"I think it's our priority to make sure they get an education and make sure they learn the football that's going to help the university they play at win. And you teach them about teamwork," Warinner said last week. "I don't think that necessarily our job is to groom guys for the NFL. That being said, I want the guys that I coach to be able to walk in and play right away as a rookie."
Warinner, who coached up linemen at Notre Dame and Ohio State before joining P.J. Fleck's staff in Minnesota this year, can trumpet the number of linemen he helped put in the pros. His most impressive feat might be seeing four of his five starting linemen from the 2013 Ohio State team, including 2016 first-rounder Taylor Decker, earn starting gigs as rookies.
Sure, during his time with Urban Meyer at Ohio State, the Buckeyes threw a lot of screens and quick-hitters like you see from air raid offenses and other pass-happy spread attacks. But Warinner's linemen also often were asked to get physical with NFL-friendly run-game concepts such as power and counter in Ohio State's smashmouth spread. Warinner said that familiarity factored into his former linemen making the leap to the pros.
"If when they go to the NFL everything is new [to them], the learning curve is so big that they get washed out. They can't keep up because the NFL isn't about going slow and bringing guys along," Warinner said. "The NFL is about 'How are we going to win this year?' and 'How are we going to get this guy ready to play right now?' "
Time taken away
During a recent phone conversation, a well-documented Harvard grad needed a few seconds to ponder one particular question.
Would Matt Birk still become Matt Birk, standout NFL center, if he were to leave the Ivy League for the NFL in 2017, not 1998?
The Vikings drafted the St. Paul native in the sixth round that year and gave him a true chance to develop. Birk outlasted others and backed up Pro Bowl center Jeff Christy for a couple of seasons before earning the starting job in his third season.
Back then, it was common for a position coach to call up a young player in February and ask him to drive over to the team facility to run through drills. And during the season, there still were reps left over in padded practices for the backups.
But the 2011 collective bargaining agreement between the league and the players union significantly restricted the amount of coaching that can be done in both the season and the offseason, turning late-round linemen into even longer shots. The changes to NFL practice rules coincided with the spread revolution at the NCAA level.
"Now's when you need the practice time more than ever and you have less than ever," said Birk, who retired in 2013 after winning a Super Bowl with the Baltimore Ravens.
Birk thinks the NFL, at least from a schematic standpoint, is adapting. He pointed to fullbacks falling out of favor for three-wide sets with pass-catching tight ends, the fact that NFL offenses are more often than not in the shotgun formation and all the smoke screens and quick passes that the Vikings and others heavily rely upon.
However, Birk feels the NFL can and should spend more time developing youngsters.
"Good teams, I think, take the time and give some attention to the young guys that are developing," Birk said. "Other teams, they're just bodies. They're holding bags [during practice]. They're running cards. Once you get into the rhythm of the season, there's not a ton of time. And those guys can kind of just get forgotten about."
So ... does Birk think he would have been able to make it as a late-round pick in today's NFL?
After mulling it over, Birk said: "I don't know. I definitely would have been at a disadvantage because I wouldn't have been able to 'outwork' some of the other people because of the ways the rules are designed. But I like to think I would have found a way to do it. It certainly would have been a lot harder."
He doesn't need to tell Spielman and the Vikings that. They now have the data to prove it.