Christian Bale as Dick Cheney in the film "Vice." (Matt Kennedy/Annapurna Pictures/TNS)

Will win

Christian Bale, “Vice”

Role: Political operative/ veep Dick Cheney.

In his favor: At last, Bale’s upper lip has found the role it was born for. Much has been made of his physical transformation, but this portrayal goes far beyond extra weight and prosthetics. The voice and posture are scarily spot-on. (G/S/B, Globes winner)

Then again: Gary Oldman just won for a latex-enhanced performance (as Winston Churchill) last year.

Should win

Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”

Role: Jackson Maine, rocker on a downward trajectory.

In his favor: In his favor: Cooper went all in on the debauchery; this is a performance utterly without conceit. The director (who happens to be Bradley Cooper) knew that the story hinges on Jackson’s pitiable downfall, and Cooper the actor delivers. (G/S/B)

Then again: His role may indeed be vital, but who are we kidding? It’s Lady Gaga’s movie.

Also nominated

Willem Dafoe, "At Eternity’s Gate”

Role: Artist Vincent Van Gogh, during his self-imposed exile in Arles.

In his favor: Dafoe’s face is its own canvas, a self-portrait come to life. With his visceral physicality, he embodies the painter’s famous lust for life and art. He even learned to paint credibly for the role, lending an authenticity that can’t be faked. (G)

Then again: At 63, Dafoe is a generation too old to play the 30-something artist.

Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Role: Iconic Queen frontman Freddie Mercury.

In his favor: Malek, as lithe and sinewy as the real deal, brings a touching sadness to the role of a consummate outsider. He rocks the bedazzled harlequin jumpsuits, and how he wrangles those choppers! They’re practically their own character. (G/S/B, Globes winner)

Then again: “Rhapsody” is an oddly sanitized portrait of a gay icon.

Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Role: “Tony Lip” Vallelonga, driver/protector for a black musician in the 1960s South.

In his favor: Mortensen is compelling as a Noo Yawk casino enforcer who finds his worldview shaken up. The 30 pounds he piled on speaks to his deep commitment. He also might have created a whole new way to eat pizza. (G/S/B)

Then again: The “Sopranos” act is just this side of cartoonish, and Tony’s change of heart feels facile.

This image released by Sony Pictures Classics shows Glenn Close in a scene from "The Wife." On Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019, Close was nominated for an Oscar for best actress for her role in the film. The 91st Academy Awards will be held on Feb. 24. (Graeme Hunter/Sony Pictures Classics via AP)

Will win

Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Role: Joan Castleman, spouse and muse to a Nobel Prize-winning author.

In her favor: Close attacks this juicy role, letting us in on her indignation, her pain and, finally, her rage. You can almost imagine her declaring, "I'm not gonna be ignored!" (G/S/B, Globes winner)

Then again: The film is predictable and pedestrian, and all but shamelessly begs "Just give Glenn Close her Oscar already."

Should win

Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”

Role: Ally Campana, a singer/songwriter with big dreams.

In her favor: We knew Gaga could sing; who could predict she would light up the screen in every scene? When Ally first turns her face to the camera in that drag club, Bradley Cooper's Jackson is smitten, and so are we. (G/S/B)

Then again: Too much, too soon? A best song award for her bringing-down-the-house "Shallow" might be considered enough.

Also nominated

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”

Role: Cleo, housemaid to a family in 1970s Mexico City.

In her favor: You don't even need subtitles: Aparicio's lovely, serene countenance contains multitudes about this family's life, and her own. Practice spelling her name; she's a true find.

Then again: A first-time actor who has been otherwise ignored during awards season, Aparicio might be the epitome of "just happy to be nominated."

Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

Role: Gout-ridden, stroke-addled Queen Anne, presiding over an 18th-century court.

In her favor: She's petulant and childlike, yet slyly manipulative and fully in command. You never doubt where the real power in this power struggle lies. And Colman isn't afraid to look batty and bloated. (G/S/B, Globes winner)

Then again: She's really first among equals in a troika of formidable females.

Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Role: Lee Israel, real-life author and forger.

In her favor: McCarthy brings her trademark irreverence to a rare serious role, infusing this misanthrope with a pathos that is as tangible as the layer of grime in her early '90s New York City apartment. And Oscar loves to reward actors playing against type. (G/S/B)

Then again: It's a small, literary-minded movie that not enough people saw.

This image released by Universal Pictures shows Mahershala Ali in a scene from "Green Book." (Universal Pictures via AP)

Will win

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Role: Real-life jazz pianist Don Shirley, who embarks on a risky concert tour of the South.

In his favor: This is Ali at his most urbane, but not far under that sophisticated shell he reveals a painful awareness of his character’s place in pre-Civil Rights Act Dixie. (G/S/B, Globes winner)

Then again: He won this award just two years ago; the Academy might want to spread the spoils around.

Should win

Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Role: Jack Hock, an outcast’s partner in crime and booze.

In his favor: This is a guy you’d love to hang out with, and Grant plays him with unbridled mirth. Swooping in and out of Lee Israel’s orbit, he puts a manic veneer on the loneliness that binds them. His AIDS diagnosis lands as a gut punch to Lee, and to us. (G/S/B)

Then again: Is the jolly gay best friend stereotype played out?

Also nominated

Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”

Role: Flip Zimmerman, who covers for his black colleague in a perilous ruse.

In his favor: Driver’s earnest deadpan serves him well, both as an empathetic co-worker who has his own skin in the game, and in his role-within-a-role as an unrepentant racist. An impressive twofer. (G/S/B)

Then again: It might be tone-deaf to honor the white man in a film called “BlacKkKlansman.”

Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”

Role: Bobby Maine, brother and manager to a rock star.

In his favor: That voice, a growl so iconic that Bradley Cooper strove to emulate it. Elliott plays Bobby as a stoic punching bag who tells the truths that need to be told. And he’s an old-school actor’s actor of the type the Academy loves to honor. (S)

Then again: He’s eclipsed by the power of the two lead performances.

Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Role: George W. Bush, president of the United States.

In his favor: In a word, he’s a hoot. With his faux-sincere squint and meandering drawl, he gives Bush a good ol’ boy’s air of genial cluelessness — but also political shrewdness, even with pork rinds hanging from his lip. (G/B)

Then again: Could he pull off back-to-back victories? It’s a feat almost as rare as a father and son becoming president.

This image released by Annapurna Pictures shows Regina King in a scene from "If Beale Street Could Talk." (Tatum Mangus/Annapurna Pictures via AP)

Will win/should win

Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Role: Sharon Rivers, a mother fighting for justice.

In her favor: King straddles the delicate line between ferocity and tenderness, sometimes in the same sentence. She taps into a primal instinct while maintaining an extraordinary dignity; this is a woman you want in your corner. (Globes winner)

Then again: Nothing — it’s hard to foresee a scenario in which King doesn’t win.

Also nominated

Amy Adams, “Vice”

Role: Lynne Cheney, the culture warrior behind a rising politician.

In her favor: Lady Macbeth in a perfect Republican helmet of hair, Adams unleashes a ruthless resolve to whip her disso­lute husband into shape and goad him to power. (G/S/B)

Then again: Nominated five previous times, Adams has been passed over for better work, including a similar role in “The Master.”

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Role: Sofia, the overwhelmed matriarch of a boisterous Mexican family.

In her favor: She manages to be both maddeningly neglectful and achingly sympathetic. We can feel that, somewhere beneath that caustic exterior, a loving mother is struggling to emerge.

Then again: Foreign-language performances are a tough sell, as evidenced by her omission from rival award contests.

Emma Stone, “The Favourite”

Role: Abigail Hill, an impoverished woman who worms her way into the royal household.

In her favor: Stone uses her big blue eyes to splendid “who, me?” effect, as she artfully schemes to stay one step ahead of those who would cross her. And she has the advantage of serving as the story’s catalyst. (G/S/B)

Then again: No one’s very likable here, but Abigail might rank last.

Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Role: Sarah Churchill, Duchess of Marlborough, longtime attendant to the queen..

In her favor: Weisz brings a survival-of-the-most-ruthless attitude to every scene, her steely intelligence and will undimmed by the increasingly unhinged goings-on. Even when she’s one-eyed, her gaze will level you. (G/S/B)

Then again: Her character isn’t as flamboyant as Stone’s, or as triumphant.