As strikeout totals have climbed in MLB in recent years, two competing thoughts have come along with them: the notion, often espoused by purists or traditionalists, that strikeouts are bad … and the notion, often espoused by newer thinkers, that strikeouts are a natural by-product of a more efficient, better way of hitting.
If you don't land on either extreme, you're left to wonder where on the scale strikeouts really land. This almost comes down to a "guilty until proven innocent vs. innocent until proven guilty" type of argument. That is to say: does striking out matter until it doesn't or does it not matter until it does.
And watching these young Twins hitters — specifically Miguel Sano, but others as well — we have a great test case.
Sano, as La Velle E. Neal III wrote recently, had the most strikeouts in MLB history of any player in his first 150 games — 221, to be exact. He crushed Bo Jackson's record of 204. It's not a record anyone wants to have — Sano wouldn't snap bats over his knee if he liked whiffing — but again we're here to ask: how much does it really matter?
With Sano, as it is with so many young hitters these days, the answer is complicated.
In addition to all those strikeouts, Sano has 62 extra-base hits (including 33 homers) in his first 150 games. He has a robust .363 on-base percentage for his career, a by-product of taking a lot of walks — some of which come from his willingness to take close pitches, which sometimes are called against him for strike three instead of ball four. So you can logically conclude Sano might not be as powerful or get on base as much if he wasn't so willing to strike out.
The counter argument is that strikeouts, on their own, have no chance of being productive outs. Whereas putting the ball in play puts pressure on a defense and might advance runners depending on the situation, strikeouts — in the context of a specific at-bat — achieve nothing.
The Twins seem to be working on getting that message out to Sano, with hitting coach Tom Brunansky urging Sano to be like Miguel Cabrera and take free RBIs when "the infield is back, they are giving it to you. All you have to do is put the ball in play over on the right side."
And indeed, this is where I think strikeouts become more damaging — maybe not individually, but as a collective. If the Twins only had one or two strikeout-prone hitters in their lineup, that would be one thing. But virtually all of their young hitters are vulnerable. The average MLB hitter this season strikes out in 23.4 percent of his official at bats. That trend line has been increasing to the point that strikeouts are no longer taboo, as you can see by these five seasons, each a decade apart, and the increase in Ks over time.
Still, the Twins are overachievers. Here are the career rates for Sano, Byron Buxton, and Byung Ho Park, all achieved since 2015:
Sano: 41. 2 percent.
Buxton: 38.6 percent.
Park: 37.2 percent.
Eddie Rosario (25.4 percent) and Max Kepler (24.9 percent) are closer to this year's league average, but both still whiff about once every four official at-bats. That's a lot of potential for rallies to die — as happened last night, when Sano struck out in a key spot late.
Park is in the minors now, while Buxton has shuffled back and forth. Sano, though, has been a lineup constant — a sign that the Twins have made a sort of uneasy peace with his propensity to strike out for a couple different reasons: 1) At-bats that don't end in strike outs tend to be pretty good and 2) He's still just 23 and figures to at least slow down from his historic strikeout pace as he gains more repetitions.
While it's true that runs per game across MLB have also declined over the past two decades as strikeouts have climbed (from 9.7 in 1995 to 9.2 in 2005 to 8.5 last season), it's too simplistic to say the rise in strikeouts is the root of it all without remembering the influence of the steroid era.
So on balance, just looking at Sano, I would say he tends to fall closer to the end of the scale that says strikeouts don't matter until they do, rather than vice-versa. Even with those 221 strikeouts in his first 150 games, he was the Twins' most productive hitter during that span.
For a player like Buxton, who isn't otherwise producing, it becomes more glaring and emblematic of overall struggles — and his strikeouts will matter until they don't.
