There's not much about the New Orleans Saints, and certainly not much about the Vikings, that remains the same since the two teams' dramatic NFC Championship Game meeting eight years ago. Perhaps the most important thing for the Saints, though, is one of the things that does remain the same: the identity of their quarterback.
Drew Brees, now in his 17th season, remains one of the game's great passers as the Saints prepare to play the Vikings a day before Brees' 39th birthday. He reclaimed his NFL single-season completion percentage record from Sam Bradford this year, connecting on 72 percent of his passes to lead the Saints to the playoffs for the first time since 2013.
The Saints will play in the division round of the playoffs for the first time since that season, against a Vikings team that hasn't gone this far since the season it lost to the Saints. That was the year, of course, the Vikings had Brett Favre as their quarterback; they haven't had a starting QB in his 30s since Favre left. On Sunday, they'll give Case Keenum his first playoff start, while Brees makes his 12th.
That raises the question, in a week full of matchups between playoff veterans and postseason neophytes, how much experience matters at this point of the season. And while it's certainly not a guarantee of anything in the playoffs — particularly in a stadium where the Vikings have lost just once this season — recent history suggests it does carry some weight.
In the last four seasons, quarterbacks who are 31 years and older have accounted for 19 of 32 starts in division playoff games, posting 11 of the 16 possible wins. Quarterbacks who were 30 and under (Keenum turns 30 in February) started only 13 playoff games in that time, winning five and losing eight. None of the four under-30 QBs who won division playoff games from 2013-2016 (Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton) was making his first career playoff start when he did it. Of those four QBs, only Kaepernick won in his first career trip to the divisional playoffs.
QBs 30 and under have completed 60.6 percent of their passes in division playoff games over the past four years, throwing 25 touchdowns against 20 interceptions and posting a modest passer rating of 83.3. In those same years, QBs 31 and over have connected on 61.7 percent of their passes in divisional games, throwing 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and compiling a collective passer rating of 91.7.
Now, teams with older quarterbacks are often further along in their roster-building process, and might enjoy better supporting casts than teams making their first run; the Patriots certainly fit in that category. There's a strong argument to be made that the Vikings have a better team around Keenum than the Saints do around Brees this time around, and Brees' experience certainly doesn't mean the Saints can expect to stroll into U.S. Bank Stadium, silence what figures to be a deafening roar at the beginning of the game and cruise to victory.
But if we're going to key on one stat here, to me, it's the fact that older QBs have thrown half as many interceptions in divisional round games than their younger counterparts over the past four years, despite making six more starts. In the postseason, where one turnover can change the complexion of a close game, the wherewithal of a veteran QB can sometimes make the difference. Brees has statistically been the NFL's most accurate QB for a long time; he's also one of its hardest to sack. He's thrown six interceptions in 11 career playoff games with the Saints, including one on Sunday, but expecting him to unload a raft full of bad passes against the Vikings probably isn't likely.
If the Saints do come into U.S. Bank Stadium and beat the Vikings on Sunday, it's a good bet Brees will be a big part of the reason why. And his experience in the playoffs is a big part of the reason he remains such a formidable threat.