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According to one of this year's most-watched political indicators, the Minnesota congressional districts most inclined to support Republican Donald Trump for president are the Seventh and Eighth in northern Minnesota — both currently represented in the U.S. House by Democrats.
By the same measure, the congressional district most potentially favorable to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is the southwest-suburban Third District, long represented by Republicans.
The marker that politically keen eyes are watching isn't a new Minnesota Poll. It's the five-year average educational attainment measurement, regularly promulgated by the U.S. Census Bureau. (See accompanying chart.) It's a prime reason that national scribes have been taking the political temperatures of the Third's GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen and the Eighth's DFL Rep. Rick Nolan.
Educational attainment — how much formal schooling folks have on their résumés — is emerging as this year's version of the ever-popular 1990s-era gender gap. It's a handy explainer that appeals to the demography geek that abides in many political psyches.
Unfortunately, it's also evidence that today's political polarization has deep-seated socioeconomic roots. That means it's not likely to be soon overcome, no matter the outcome of this election.
Pollsters have noted for some time that Americans with college educations are aligning in greater numbers with the Democratic than the Republican Party. Nationally, Pew Research reports, the share of Democrats and Democratic leaners with at least a four-year degree is up 16 percentage points in the last 25 years, and now sits at 37 percent, compared with 31 percent for Republicans.
The sorting by educational attainment is more pronounced in the presidential race. A Bloomberg Politics poll conducted last month found Clinton winning among college-educated Americans by 25 percentage points, 59 percent to 34 percent. By contrast, Trump had a 10-point edge among those without a college degree, 52 percent to 42 percent. Bloomberg pollster J. Ann Selzer allowed that "the presence or absence of a college degree is more predictive of the vote in this election than we've seen in past elections."
If that stat's predictive power holds true on Nov. 8, Minnesota's Third District is almost certain to go for Clinton. Nearly half of its adult residents age 25 and older — 46.5 percent — have at least a bachelor's degree. That's more than in any other Minnesota district, though the reliably DFL Fourth and Fifth aren't far behind. It's also a 13-percentage-point gain in the district's college-educated share of the population since 1990 (when the district had slightly different boundaries).
Meanwhile, Trump would appear to have a shot at carrying the First, Seventh and Eighth Districts, where more than 40 percent of voters have earned no more than a high school diploma, by the Census Bureau's count.
Speculation about what those presidential tendencies might mean for this year's congressional contests will keep politically minded Minnesotans chattering for the next seven weeks. Will a big Clinton victory in the Third District imperil Erik Paulsen, who faces a formidable DFL challenge from state Sen. Terri Bonoff? Will a Trump sweep on the Iron Range or maybe the entire Eighth District produce a different outcome this time in the Rick Nolan-Stewart Mills rematch?
Do Minnesotans remember how to cast a split-ticket ballot? Elsewhere in the country, there's evidence that voters have forgotten.
The answers to those questions are unclear — and that's something I rather admire. I'd call it a good thing that in this state, educational attainment has not been a perfect predictor — yet — of whom voters will send to Congress.
At the congressional level, both of Minnesota's big parties still have a stake in the well-being of both the well-educated and not-so-well-educated segments of society. They both have reasons to advocate for the success of both the rural and the urban populations. The Minnesota congressional delegation is not much inclined to feed regional resentments or advocate for policies that benefit one part of the state at the expense of another.
Would that the same could be said of legislative-level politics.
Still, Minnesotans can't feel good about the regional disparities in educational attainment that exist in this state. They know well that in today's knowledge-based economy, regions with smaller college-educated populations are at economic risk.
This year's presidential race is showing them that a nation — or a state — with big gaps in educational attainment is also at democratic risk. It's increasingly difficult for Americans with and without college degrees to reach the consensus that American-style democracy requires.
Lori Sturdevant is a Star Tribune editorial writer and columnist. She is at lsturdevant@startribune.com.
